• Editorial outlook: A failure of momentum • Macroeconomics: Economic dynamics favourable overall • Strategy: Cyclical plays to the fore • Headline news from around the world: Monetary policies moving in divergent directions • Asset classes: Risk factors confirmed as taking over as driving forces • Topic of the month: Are hedge funds staging a comeback? […]
Last December, in our investment guidance for 2013, we suggested that the year could be characterised by a decline in the Swiss franc, particularly against the euro. Movements in the first half seemed to confirm this prognosis, since in January and again in May the exchange rate soared above 1.25 (although it failed to stay […]
In this edition: • CIO Yves Bonzon’s editorial outlook: One train may hide another • Macroeconomics: The cost of the US monetary brake • Strategy: Clouds of risk bubbling up over emerging markets • Headline news: Monetary tightening in various parts of the globe • Asset classes: Financial markets hanging on the Fed’s every word […]
In this month’s Perspectives magazine: Yves Bonzon’s editorial outlook: The Fed’s bet Macroeconomics: Central banks breeding anxiety Strategy: Correction providing a strategic entry-point Headline news from around the world: Turkey and Australia under the cosh Asset classes: China and the US sewing seeds of discord Topic of the month: Ramifications of the crisis in China’s interbank market Key figures: Interest rates […]
Of all the key indicators in financial markets, the most important is the value and trend of the US dollar. Essentially there are three regimes for the American currency. The depreciation regime This is the regime most frequently observed since the end of the Bretton Woods monetary system in August 1971. These phases of orderly depreciation generally correspond to periods […]
Hedge funds may have been the winners in the bear market of 2002, but in the crisis of 2008 they were among the biggest losers. Locked in to losses by “gates” and other “side-pockets”, private investors have been disappointed by their performance in the market rally over the past four years. Today aversion to liquid […]
Just as investors had begun to regain some confidence in recent months in the EU’s ability to respond appropriately to the crisis of the single currency, the proposed means of financing the bailout of Cyprus’s banks has abruptly reminded them of growing financial repression in the large, overindebted Western economies. As the following chart shows, […]
In September 2011, the gold price peaked at $1,920 an ounce – only 4% short of our target price of the $2,000 level that long formed part of our investment strategy. We therefore faced a choice: either raise our target price or sell gold. At the time, we opted to raise our target to $3,000 […]
Since the secular peak in developed equity markets in 2000, the correlation between gold and stocks, while unstable and complex, has had one consistent characteristic. Since that moment, which marked the beginning of the bull market in gold, stocks have never experienced a bull phase without gold also rising in parallel. It has happened that […]
John Maynard Keynes wrote in the preface to his seminal work The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, published in 1936, that “the difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones”. The systemic crisis shaking the global financial edifice to its foundations for over four years now has […]
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