The rally in risky assets in September took us by surprise, since our basic macroeconomic scenario has been quite correct. Developed economies, led by the United States, have indeed slowed significantly in recent months. According to our route map, such a slowdown would lead to a new policy mix, including a second round of quantitative […]
The government in Berlin is perfectly at ease with its rigorous deficit-reduction programme, since it regards the austerity medicine as good for growth. Germany’s Finance Minister,Wolfgang Schäuble, brimming with enthusiasm for the virtues of fiscal austerity, even offered his services to his US counterpart,Treasury SecretaryTimothy Geithner, to explain the wisdom of following what he referred […]
Although the sovereign-debt crisis sent the price of the 2040 Hellenic Republic bond below the 50% mark, or under its level before the eurozone’s EUR750bn bailout package, it has barely impinged on US or Japanese government debt securities. At the time of writing, 10-year Japanese government bonds are yielding 1.10%, while benchmark 10-year US Treasuries […]
Financial analysts, pundits and commentators have long warned of the likelihood ofWestern governments running into serious budget deficit problems by 2020, chiefly as a result of the rapidly ageing populations in this part of the world.The financial crisis that flared up in 2008 has only hastened the beginning of serious budget financing problems. 2010 is […]
At the time of writing, the finance ministers of the eurozone have just announced officially a three-year aid plan for Greece of 110 billion euros. But what hesitation and procrastination it has taken to get there. Discussions were expected to be bitter and messy, but European politicians have shown themselves to be particularly arrogant in […]
The implementation of exit strategies, particularly through monetary policy, is high on the list of likely factors influencing the markets in 2010. By exposing, unexpectedly early, huge gaps in its public balance sheet, Athens has shown how little room for fiscal manoeuvre governments have after the financial crisis. Paradoxically, these fiscal constraints have reduced the […]
This month we propose to discuss an investment opportunity completely independent of whether or not Athens has the capacity to honour its commitments or to obtain credits from Brussels.This investment – really – has an AAA rating, a potential performance worthy of a BBB, but also a low correlation to the emerging markets risk factor […]
The year now drawing to a close has been marked on financial markets by two powerful trends in succession: a downtrend to mid-March followed by a strong uptrend to date. At the end of 2008, Pictet’s Investment Committee in its strategic analysis had predicted a ‘W’-shaped cycle for equities and economies, with 2010 expected to […]
In last month’s issue, we outlined our fundamental analysis of where capital markets were likely to be heading in the first half of the next decade.We described our three- stage analytical process, the final phase of which involves pinpointing and understanding structural breaks that might affect economies or markets and assessing knock-on effects for financial […]
The act of investing calls for the decision-maker to rein in and master their emotions. Faced with the daily torrent of price- and market-sensitive news, it is crucial to be able to distinguish genuine information from mere noise or rumour.This means picking out news that is really influential from items causing short-lived ripples which mask […]
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