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Global economy still looking brittle

The November 2012 issue of Perspectives is now available for downloading. Here are this month’s key figures. Growth in the world economy looks set to slacken to a historically slow tempo in the months ahead. This assumption, considering the seemingly slim chance of positive surprises surfacing in the US, Europe or even China, forms one […]

Megatrends

Investor confidence has been shaken by the dramatic events of the last five years, while uncertainty promises to be a feature of the investment landscape for much of the next decade. For those bold enough to take on the challenge of navigating economic cycles that are likely to be more unpredictable than at any point since the Great Depression, a turbulent […]

Upswing in US housing market confirmed

The November 2012 issue of Perspectives is now available for downloading. Here are this month’s headline news from around the world. The upswing being staged by the US housing sector has proved surprisingly robust. Most recently, figures for housing starts beat expectations. There is still a long way to go, however, before figures recover to […]

France – the business sector’s calls have been heard

Government unveils €20 billion package to boost French companies. The amount falls short of the €30 billion suggested by the Gallois report. Nonetheless, it represents a sizeable 1% of GDP. This will help to invert the worrying trend marked by a widening trade deficit and deindustrialisation. The measures will weigh on the 2014 budget so […]

United States: The elections and the ‘fiscal cliff’

The results of the US elections were a political status quo With Barack Obama reelected, there is more certainty on the continuity of the Fed ultra accommodative monetary stance in 2014 Market attention will now turn rapidly towards the ‘fiscal cliff’. The most likely scenario is a last-minute compromise just before Christmas, with decisions limiting […]

Central banks and the mountains of public debt

The November 2012 edition of Perspectives – titled “Central banks and the mountains of public debt” – is now available for download and online reading. In this edition: • Editorial outlook: Watch the Fed’s balance sheet • Macroeconomics: European systemic risk contained against backdrop of anaemic growth • Strategy: Volatility possibly heading for a rise […]

Double digit earnings growth expected in 2013, but can they surprise on the upside?

On average, the elasticity of S&P 500 earnings relative to US nominal GDP growth has been 4.2 since 1988. In a blue sky 2013 economic scenario, where US nominal GDP growth would bounce back to 4.25% in 2013, this would lead to potential earnings growth of 17%. This would be our upper limit for potential […]

Prix Pictet 2012: Power

Founded in 2008, the Prix Pictet has rapidly established itself as the world’s leading prize in photography and sustainability. The award has a global audience of over 400 million, and aims to uncover outstanding photography applied to confront the most pressing social and environmental challenges of today. Following themes that have included water, earth and […]

United States: job creation above expectations

Overall, today’s report was encouraging, with job creation in October above expectations and upward revisions in recent past figures. However, the recent pace of job creation is not far above the average for this cycle and growth in labour income seems to have stabilised but remains quite modest. Non-farm payroll employment increased by 171,000 m-o-m […]

Central banks and the mountains of public debt

We consider the metal silver as one of the types of asset most sensitive to quantitative easing (QE). It is already seven weeks since the Federal Reserve announced a fresh round of unconventional monetary stimulus. However, the price of silver had already begun to rise in mid-August as investors began to discount the measures revealed […]

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