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United States: Q3 consumption growth is likely to be healthier than feared

US consumption growth perspectives in Q3 are turning modestly encouraging. As expected, following the publication in mid-august of relatively upbeat July 2012 retail sales data, last week’s nominal personal consumption expenditure data for the same month showed a rise of a solid 0.4% m-o-m. However, following the sharp uptick in gasoline prices over the past […]

Global economy in 3GD mode

By the end of August almost all major asset classes had posted positive returns for the year, of between 2% and 15%. With an increasingly gloomy outlook, even for the Chinese locomotive, many observers find this performance puzzling.The answer to the markets’ performance lies mainly in how implicit expectations for growth and inflation have evolved […]

Philanthropy and social entrepreneurship

As the pace of change in the global economy continues to accelerate, new solutions to some of the world’s most intractable problems are emerging. One important trend is the evolution of philanthropy, which used to largely take the form of passive donations to charities and foundations. Today, a new generation of entrepreneurs in both the […]

Euro area: maintaining our forecast of a deeper contraction in the third quarter

As during the previous quarter, the euro area will probably be stuck in recession in the current one as well. However, last week’s Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) release is noticeable in the sense that it is the first serious sign of economic stabilisation after several months of deterioration. The only exceptions, so far, have been […]

US retail sales: robust rise in July, following softness in Q2

Retail sales bounced back by 0.8% m-o-m in July, well above consensus expectations. Moreover, core sales were also stronger than expected: up 0.9% m-o-m, against consensus estimates of 0.5%. All in all, this report was clearly encouraging. However, July’s solid increase in sales followed widespread weakness in Q2. We expect consumption growth to be higher […]

ECB press conference: Mario Draghi disappoints despite announcement of quasi-QE

Mario Draghi disappoints owing to excessively high expectations. Nevertheless, the ECB has decided to include sovereign bond interventions (a sort of QE) in its regular toolbox. Large-scale government bond purchases could result from Thursday’s decision. Moreover, the ECB is willing to give up its seniority status. First ECB intervention unlikely before October. Despite limitations, Thursday’s […]

Three “GDs” : impact on financial markets’ past, present, and future (2/2)

In this two-part article [part one], Christophe Donay, head of Asset Allocation and Macro Research,  discusses how the global economy is now dominated by the three GDs: the European Great Divergence, the US Great Deleveraging and the Emerging Markets Great Dynamics. These three forces rationalise the economic performance of the US, European and Emerging market […]

Three "GDs" : impact on financial markets' past, present, and future (2/2)

In this two-part article [part one], Christophe Donay, head of Asset Allocation and Macro Research,  discusses how the global economy is now dominated by the three GDs: the European Great Divergence, the US Great Deleveraging and the Emerging Markets Great Dynamics. These three forces rationalise the economic performance of the US, European and Emerging market […]

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