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US retail sales: robust rise in July, following softness in Q2

Retail sales bounced back by 0.8% m-o-m in July, well above consensus expectations. Moreover, core sales were also stronger than expected: up 0.9% m-o-m, against consensus estimates of 0.5%. All in all, this report was clearly encouraging. However, July’s solid increase in sales followed widespread weakness in Q2. We expect consumption growth to be higher […]

ECB press conference: Mario Draghi disappoints despite announcement of quasi-QE

Mario Draghi disappoints owing to excessively high expectations. Nevertheless, the ECB has decided to include sovereign bond interventions (a sort of QE) in its regular toolbox. Large-scale government bond purchases could result from Thursday’s decision. Moreover, the ECB is willing to give up its seniority status. First ECB intervention unlikely before October. Despite limitations, Thursday’s […]

Three “GDs” : impact on financial markets’ past, present, and future (2/2)

In this two-part article [part one], Christophe Donay, head of Asset Allocation and Macro Research,  discusses how the global economy is now dominated by the three GDs: the European Great Divergence, the US Great Deleveraging and the Emerging Markets Great Dynamics. These three forces rationalise the economic performance of the US, European and Emerging market […]

Three "GDs" : impact on financial markets' past, present, and future (2/2)

In this two-part article [part one], Christophe Donay, head of Asset Allocation and Macro Research,  discusses how the global economy is now dominated by the three GDs: the European Great Divergence, the US Great Deleveraging and the Emerging Markets Great Dynamics. These three forces rationalise the economic performance of the US, European and Emerging market […]

Three “GDs” : How they shape the world (1/2)

In this two-part article, Christophe Donay, head of Asset Allocation and Macro Research,  discusses how the global economy is now dominated by the three GDs: the European Great Divergence, the US Great Deleveraging and the Emerging Markets Great Dynamics. These three forces rationalise the economic performance of the US, European and Emerging market economies, as well […]

Three "GDs" : How they shape the world (1/2)

In this two-part article, Christophe Donay, head of Asset Allocation and Macro Research,  discusses how the global economy is now dominated by the three GDs: the European Great Divergence, the US Great Deleveraging and the Emerging Markets Great Dynamics. These three forces rationalise the economic performance of the US, European and Emerging market economies, as well […]

Will the ESM solve the crisis?

ECB’s Nowotny’s comments about giving the ESM a banking licence have boosted the market. However, such a solution appears impracticable within the current legal framework as it will violate Art. 123, one of the cornerstones of the construction of the EMU. One way of circumventing the ban imposed by Art. 123 would be to split […]

Euro area set for new recession

Worse-than-expected outcome The Ifo business climate index has fallen from 105.3 in June to 103.3 in July, well below the expected level (104.5). This is the third decline in a row. After improving last month, the current assessment index has fallen by 2.3 points to 111.6. Expectations have also been more pessimistic in July, with a decrease of 1.7 […]

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