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A new monetary era

The October 2012 issue of Perspectives is now available for downloading. In his editorial outlook, Chief Investment Officer Yves Bonzon explains that the unlimited QE of the US and its European cousin OMT differ significantly in terms of the likely monetary consequences on the two continents. The US and European central banks are widely perceived […]

Contrasting picture of economic statistics

The October 2012 issue of Perspectives is now available for downloading. Here are this month’s headline news from around the world. Monetary policy continues to be softened against the backdrop of a global slowdown. Just when glimmers of hope of an upturn have been surfacing in the US, economic numbers released in Europe have disappointed […]

Commodities coming under pressure

The October 2012 issue of Perspectives is now available for downloading. Here are this month’s key figures. Apart from energy and some precious metals, like gold, prices of some raw materials, particularly farming and food commodities, fell during the month. The main reason for this has been the slowdown in the global economy. Data in […]

Markets prone to twin influences of monetary policy and systemic risk

The October 2012 edition of Perspectives – titled “Markets prone to twin influences of monetary policy and systemic risk” – is now available for download and online reading. In this edition: • Editorial outlook: A new monetary era • Macroeconomics: Two factors dominating the global economic scene< • Strategy: Liquidity risk premium receding • Headline […]

The ECB in wait-and-see mode

Yesterday’s press conference held in Slovenia did not add much new information. It was mostly an occasion for Mario Draghi to clarify some aspects of the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme. It confirmed that the ECB has entered a wait-and-see mode that could unnerve financial markets if the Spanish government does not soon take the […]

United States: Q3 consumption growth likely to be lacklustre

As expected following the publication of upbeat nominal retail sales data two weeks ago, last week’s figures show that nominal personal consumption expenditure rose by a solid 0.5% m-o-m in August 2012. However, as surging gasoline prices pushed the deflator up by almost the same percentage, in real terms, consumer spending rose by a much […]

Markets prone to twin influences of monetary policy and systemic risk

he US and European central banks are widely perceived as committed to a path of frantic monetisation in order to avert the risk of deflation. However, the unlimited QE (quantitative easing) of the US and its European cousin OMT (‘outright monetary transactions’ – of peripheral sovereign debt) differ significantly in terms of the likely monetary […]

Systemic risk and the business cycle: the two main risk factors driving the global economy

The state of the world economy is currently dominated by two main risk factors (drivers): 1) the global business cycle, currently in a slowdown and 2) the systemic crisis, driven primarily by the European debt crisis. Over the past few weeks however, the systemic crisis has been somewhat relieved. In particular, the liquidity risk has […]

United States: Total net new credit reached a new cycle high in Q2 2012

Encouragingly, total net new credit bounced back strongly in Q2 2012, reaching a new cycle high. However, what is driving economic growth is not the level of net new credit but its change. To quantify that factor, we are calculating a “credit impulse”, which is actually the year-on-year change in net new credit, measured as […]

Risks of euro falling apart forcing the ECB out of its shell

The September 2012 issue of Perspectives is now available for reading and downloading. Here is September’s topic of the month: unless interest rates fall swiftly round the eurozone’s periphery, the eurozone will be fated to come apart at the seams. By hinting at the possibility of buying up sovereign debt, the ECB is making its […]

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