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Perspectives September 2012: “Global economy in 3GD mode”

The September 2012 edition of Perspectives – titled “Global economy in 3GD mode” – is now available for download and online reading. In this edition: • Editorial outlook: Seeking defensive stocks • Macroeconomics: Prospects looking brighter for the second half • Strategy: Mario Draghi’s soothing words • Headline news from around the world: Monetary policy […]

At last, the ECB announces unlimited intervention!

Mario Draghi has finally delivered what was very close to investors’ expectations. In announcing the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs), the ECB will put up its almost unlimited balance sheet to serve as a backstop in this crisis. The main key word in yesterday’s announcement was “unlimited”. The key points of the ECB’s announcement are the […]

Switzerland: Economic growth, GDP contracted q-o-q in Q2

Swiss GDP contracted by 0.1% q-o-q in Q2 2012 (-0.2% annualised), below consensus expectations (+0.2%) and our own expectations (+0.1%). Moreover, growth rates for the preceding few quarters were revised sharply down. For Q1 2012, q-o-q growth was revised from +0.7% to +0.5% and y-o-y growth from 2.0% to 1.2% (see chart below). Very strong […]

Switzerland: Economic growth, GDP contracted q-o-q in Q2

Swiss GDP contracted by 0.1% q-o-q in Q2 2012 (-0.2% annualised), below consensus expectations (+0.2%) and our own expectations (+0.1%). Moreover, growth rates for the preceding few quarters were revised sharply down. For Q1 2012, q-o-q growth was revised from +0.7% to +0.5% and y-o-y growth from 2.0% to 1.2% (see chart below). Very strong […]

Markets on hold until further political decisions

Yves Bonzon, Chief Investment Officier, explains that the levels necessary to trigger quantitative easing measures in the US have not been reached, shifting the responsibility for growth to Europe and the political measures that will be discussed in September. The markets will be volatile until then and the preferred asset classes remain investment grade corporate […]

United States: Q3 consumption growth is likely to be healthier than feared

US consumption growth perspectives in Q3 are turning modestly encouraging. As expected, following the publication in mid-august of relatively upbeat July 2012 retail sales data, last week’s nominal personal consumption expenditure data for the same month showed a rise of a solid 0.4% m-o-m. However, following the sharp uptick in gasoline prices over the past […]

Global economy in 3GD mode

By the end of August almost all major asset classes had posted positive returns for the year, of between 2% and 15%. With an increasingly gloomy outlook, even for the Chinese locomotive, many observers find this performance puzzling.The answer to the markets’ performance lies mainly in how implicit expectations for growth and inflation have evolved […]

Philanthropy and social entrepreneurship

As the pace of change in the global economy continues to accelerate, new solutions to some of the world’s most intractable problems are emerging. One important trend is the evolution of philanthropy, which used to largely take the form of passive donations to charities and foundations. Today, a new generation of entrepreneurs in both the […]

Euro area: maintaining our forecast of a deeper contraction in the third quarter

As during the previous quarter, the euro area will probably be stuck in recession in the current one as well. However, last week’s Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) release is noticeable in the sense that it is the first serious sign of economic stabilisation after several months of deterioration. The only exceptions, so far, have been […]

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