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Euro area crisis: totting up the notches

Has something changed in the way the euro area crisis is perceived? Despite the downgrade of nine euro area countries (see illustration hereunder), which resulted in the EFSF losing its AAA rating, and the threat of a spiral of downgrade and defaults, markets have remained positive. The upbeat mood seen since the beginning of the […]

The Swiss franc: what to expect after Mr Hildebrand

In the early days of 2012, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) came under the spotlight again. This time, however, it was not because of its currency interventions but because of its (now) former head, Philipp Hildebrand. Indeed, Mr Hildebrand had to resign after his wife bought US dollars a couple of days before the SNB, […]

Perspectives Presentation Geneva

This week took place in Geneva our Perspectives events with Yves Bonzon and Christophe Donay presenting Pictet’s views for 2012. Please find below the slides (in French) they used for their presentations. Perspectives – Janvier 2012 – Y. Bonzon Perspectives – Janvier 2012 – Ch. Donay  

United States: Retail sales slowed in December

Today’s nominal retail sales figures for December and the revised statistics for the two prior months show that for the whole of Q4, retail sales increased by a strong 7.9% q-o-q annualised, following a 4.7% rise in Q3. For December only however, nominal retail sales rose by a disappointing 0.1% m-o-m, below consensus expectations (+0.3%). […]

United States: The labour market improves further

Non-farm payroll employment increased by a strong 200,000 m-o-m in December, above consensus expectations of an increase of 155,000. Net revisions for October and November cumulated to an only marginally negative -8,000. Non-Farm Employment: Month-on-Month Change (in thousands) As this monthly statistic is often very volatile (see chart above) and 100,000 jobs represent less than […]

United States: The ISM manufacturing index bounces back further

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM), which tracks the amount of manufacturing activity, published an encouraging survey today, suggesting that the recent pick up in economic growth continued toward the end of last year. The ISM manufacturing index bounced back further to 53.9 in December, up from 52.7 in November and 50.8 in October (see […]

Insight: biggest private bank in Europe

Pictet was portrayed recently in NZZ am Sonntag (Neue Zurcher Zeitung) as part of a series on the Swiss business dynasties. This article presents the history of the bank, an interview with Jacques de Saussure (our senior partner) and highlights Pictet’s unique set of values and client focused culture. > English version > French version […]

Euro area: still likely to contract in 2012

Eurozone statistics are likely to continue to deteriorate probably until mid-Q1 due to the traditional lag between surveys and activity, even if the recent stabilisation in surveys is confirmed in the following months. As a result, we maintain our forecast of a contraction of 0.1% on average for 2012 for the whole euro area. Nevertheless, […]

Insight: A greater role for social entrepreneurs

As the holiday season is starting, we are happy to present the views from Filipe Santos on Social Entrepreneurship, a trend gaining importance in times of fiscal austerity. Filipe Santos is Associate Professor of Entrepreneurship at INSEAD. He is the director for the Maag International Centre for Entrepreneurship and the academic director of the INSEAD Social […]

US inflation to ease in 2012

We continue to believe year-on-year core inflation will peak in December or January at a slightly higher rate than in November, stabilise in Q1 2012 and then decline progressively, reaching some 1.5% by end-2012. Today’s US inflation statistics show that year-on-year core inflation inched up further to 2.2% in November. After falling to 0.6% in […]

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