The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) went beyond expectations of the markets yesterday by pushing back the timing of the expected first hike from mid-2013 to late 2014, by stating that: “economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014”. With a further reduction in […]
Corporate earnings are expected to grow by 9% in the United States and by 8% in Europe in 2012. As leading economic indicators are stabilising in Europe and improving in the United States, pressure on estimated 2012 earnings should ease. Thus, excluding a new financial shock, most adjustments on estimated earnings are likely to have […]
Existing home sales rose strongly in December 2011. They increased by 5.0% m-o-m to 4.61 million annualised, which was slightly below consensus expectations (4.65 million). This provided confirmation of the revival in sales seen since August last year. Existing home sales bounced back by a robust 12.5% q-o-q annualised in Q4, following a fall of […]
Core CPI rose by 0.145% m-o-m, in line with consensus estimates. Over the past three months, the core CPI has increased by 1.8% annualised, a lower reading than over the preceding three months of 2.1% (see chart hereunder). US Core CPI: % Change Year-on-year core inflation stabilised at 2.2% in December (before rounding, it actually […]
Has something changed in the way the euro area crisis is perceived? Despite the downgrade of nine euro area countries (see illustration hereunder), which resulted in the EFSF losing its AAA rating, and the threat of a spiral of downgrade and defaults, markets have remained positive. The upbeat mood seen since the beginning of the […]
In the early days of 2012, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) came under the spotlight again. This time, however, it was not because of its currency interventions but because of its (now) former head, Philipp Hildebrand. Indeed, Mr Hildebrand had to resign after his wife bought US dollars a couple of days before the SNB, […]
This week took place in Geneva our Perspectives events with Yves Bonzon and Christophe Donay presenting Pictet’s views for 2012. Please find below the slides (in French) they used for their presentations. Perspectives – Janvier 2012 – Y. Bonzon Perspectives – Janvier 2012 – Ch. Donay
Today’s nominal retail sales figures for December and the revised statistics for the two prior months show that for the whole of Q4, retail sales increased by a strong 7.9% q-o-q annualised, following a 4.7% rise in Q3. For December only however, nominal retail sales rose by a disappointing 0.1% m-o-m, below consensus expectations (+0.3%). […]
Non-farm payroll employment increased by a strong 200,000 m-o-m in December, above consensus expectations of an increase of 155,000. Net revisions for October and November cumulated to an only marginally negative -8,000. Non-Farm Employment: Month-on-Month Change (in thousands) As this monthly statistic is often very volatile (see chart above) and 100,000 jobs represent less than […]
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM), which tracks the amount of manufacturing activity, published an encouraging survey today, suggesting that the recent pick up in economic growth continued toward the end of last year. The ISM manufacturing index bounced back further to 53.9 in December, up from 52.7 in November and 50.8 in October (see […]
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