Industrial production rose by a strong 0.8% m-o-m in March, above consensus estimates (+0.6%). Moreover, the February reading was revised from -0.1% to +0.1%. However, January’s figure was revised from +0.3% to +0.1%. The positive surprise in the headline figure was partly due to a strong rebound in production of utilities: +1.7% m-o-m, following a […]
The overall CPI rose by 0.5% m-o-m in March, in line with consensus expectations. Food prices were up a strong 0.8% whilst energy prices jumped further up by 3.5% m-o-m (gasoline surged 5.6%). Core CPI was up by 0.1% m-o-m (0.135% to be precise), slightly below consensus estimates (+0.2%). Over the past three months however, […]
The US trade deficit narrowed marginally in February to $45.8bn. The small drop was mostly linked to the oil balance Between Q4 and January-February, real exports grew more modestly than expected, whilst real imports bounced back very strongly As a result, we are revising our forecast for Q1 GDP growth from 3¼% to 2¾% The […]
As expected the ECB has raised the refinancing rate by 25bp to 1.25% The ‘corridor’ is left unchanged as the deposit and the marginal lending facilities have also been raised by 25bp Monetary policy tightening will probably follow We expect the refinancing rate to reach 2% at the end of the year As expected, the […]
Payrolls rose by a healthy 216,000 in March, above consensus estimates. Encouragingly as well, the unemployment rate fell further from 8.9% in February to 8.8% in March Other data were also upbeat, in particular due to an upward revision of February’s average workweek. As a result, aggregate weekly payrolls (a proxy for labour income) grew […]
The events of the last few years have provided a salutary reminder of the importance of performance in business and investment. As the global economy recovers from the financial crisis, it is clear that short-term performance in both fields is no longer enough. The challenge is to create sustainable performance in a world where the […]
Two exogenous shock-waves have struck markets in the past few weeks: the first, social and political, stemming from the democratic uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East; the second, seismic and nuclear, with the devastating earthquake and tsunami, and the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan. These events have unfolded against a still bright […]
Today we summarize the long-term trends of China’s economy and the transformations at work. These highlights are more structural than cyclical, and portray the pattern of Chinese growth, its sustainability and the challenges for the coming years. The size of the Chinese economy put into perspective China may be the world’s second largest economy, but […]
NIPA corporate profits rose by 9.7% q-o-q annualised in Q4 10, slightly higher than in Q3 (+6.6%) Profits from financial corporations bounced back further sharply q-o-q but non-financial profits actually declined modestly The third estimate of Q3 GDP data was accompanied by a set of economy wide statistics on corporate profits in a National Accounts […]
Total industrial production dropped by 0.1% m-o-m in February, due to a fall in the most volatile component (utilities) However, manufacturing production was up 0.4% and January’s number was revised sharply up As a result, growth in manufacturing output bounced back sharply over the past few months, consistent with what was suggested by recent ISM […]
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