Asset Allocation While the recent sell-off might have been overdone in view of fundamentals that remain basically sound, market gyrations and our expectation of further volatility mean we remain neutral equities overall. The current environment favours active management and a tactical allocation approach, exemplified by the partial sale of equity options we acquired to protect […]
As a consequence of the heavy drop of support in recent regional elections, Chancellor Angela Merkel has declared she would not run again for leadership of the CDU at the 6-8 December party convention. Merkel also said she would retire from politics at the end of the current parliament in 2021. It is questionable whether […]
Euro area flash HICP rose from 2.1% year on year (y-o-y) in September to 2.2% in October, in line with expectations and the highest level since December 2012. Crucially, core inflation (HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rebounded from 0.9% to 1.1% in October. Energy inflation rose to 10.6% y-o-y from 9.5% y-o-y in […]
One salient feature of the US since its foundation has been the dynamism of internal migration. In recent decades, the trend has mostly been one of southern and western tropism, with an outflow of population from the north (the northeast in particular), to the south and west of the country. This trend seems to have […]
According to initial estimates, growth in the euro area slowed in Q3 to 0.2% q-o-q (quarter on quarter) from 0.4% in Q2. These latest GDP results were below consensus expectations and our own forecast. This was the weakest quarterly growth figure for the euro area since Q2 2014 and marks the widest divergence vis-à-vis the […]
As the economy continues to decelerate, the Chinese government is ramping up fiscal policy, in order to offset downward pressure. Since June, the government’s fiscal spending has picked up significantly, although it remains fairly modest compared with previous years. In the first five months of the year, China’s fiscal policy was on the tight side, […]
Last week’s continued equities sell-off was driven by disappointment with the earnings reporting season. Having propped up market returns for much of this year, tech’s poor performance was particularly noteworthy. Last week, below-expectation metrics from Amazon and Alphabet (Google’s parent company) flattened the S&P 500’s returns for 2018, while European equities have been much more […]
The first estimate for Q3 GDP (3.5% quarter-on-quarter annualised) confirmed that the US business cycle remains solid. Whereas consumption was stronger than in previous quarters, investment was softer than in the first half of the year—but the underlying story is that solid consumption continues to support US growth. Overall, we expect both to be resilient going […]
Investment is an important driver of the business cycle and a key determinant of potential growth. In the euro area, total investment makes up about 20% of GDP. Construction, machinery and equipment (including weapons systems), intellectual property rights and agricultural products account, respectively, for 48%, 32%, 18% and 2% of total investment. Machinery and equipment […]
IMD Lausanne is a world-leading business school based in the Lausanne region. Its Global Family Business Centre, which has operated for more than 30 years, was the first institute to focus on family businesses, their values, the principles they champion and their particular characteristics. In October 2018, Pictet joined forces with IMD to the IMD Global Family Business […]
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