Latest articles

View archive

A storm in a teacup: emerging-market debt

Emerging market (EM) debt has been suffering lately, posting a disappointing performance year-to-date. While we expect that at some point this sell-off will offer compelling opportunities for investors who have the patience to ride out the storm, we still recommend caution as, on a shorter horizon (the coming three months), US Treasury yields could spike […]

US chart of the week – Texas boom

From a macroeconomic perspective, Texas is, in our view, the pivotal state to watch this year. Texas has been a major driving force of US growth lately, propelled by the domestic energy boom – the epicentre of which is the Permian Basin that straddles Texas and New Mexico. In Q4 2017 (latest data available), oil-rich […]

Switzerland: ‘Sovereign money’ initiative

SWITZERLAND: A TEST BED FOR RADICAL IDEAS The ‘Sovereign money’ initiative, to be voted on in June, aims at a fundamental reform of the Swiss monetary system. In a nutshell, the initiative asks that the creation of money and the granting of loans be separated by barring commercial banks from creating deposits through lending. According […]

Gold price to remain trendless

The recent strength of the US dollar coupled with the rise of the US 10-year Treasury yield has weighed on the price of gold and silver. Since 19 April, gold has lost roughly 2.3%, while silver lost almost 4.5% in USD terms. At the start of the year, these two drivers were sending conflicting signals: […]

China: Little progress in trade talks with US

A US delegation of Trump’s top economic advisors, led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, had a two-day meeting with their Chinese counterparts in Beijing on 3-4 May to discuss the trade issues between the two nations. It appears that the meeting has led to little progress in solving the trade disputes between the two, meaning […]

The world growth engine is humming

Christophe Donay, Chief Strategist, Head of Asset Allocation & Macro Research, Pictet Wealth Management Since the beginning of the year, depending on currency, many asset classes have recorded negative or only marginally positive returns. In US dollar terms, US and global equity indices (MSCI World) have produced total returns of below 0.5% since 1 January, […]

US employment keeps climbing, but wage growth disappoints

The US labour market continues on a familiar pattern: employment momentum remains robust, but wage growth is still disturbingly lacklustre. In April, 164,000 payrolls were added and the three-month average was a solid 208,000/month. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%, the lowest since December 2000 (although this was partly due to a drop in the […]

Europe chart of the week – Corporate Sector Soft Patch

Next week’s detailed breakdown of ECB QE monthly data will reveal a marked slowdown in the pace of corporate bond purchases in April (Corporate Sector Purchase Programme, or CSPP). Indeed, weekly holdings data have been consistent with gross purchases of around EUR3bn in April, down from EUR5.8bn on average in Q1. There are several possible […]

House View, May 2018

Asset Allocation In spite of a certain loss of momentum in positive surprises, a strong Q1 earnings season continues to justify our bullish stance on equities in most regions. We reiterate our negative view on core government bonds and remain short duration. Volatility is still higher than last year, and has increased noticeably in the […]

Fed not deviating from rate-hiking routine

The Federal Reserve meeting of 1-2 May 2018 brought no surprises. As the Fed kept rates unchanged (i.e., the Fed’s interest rate on excess reserves still at 1.75%), as widely expected, the focus was on the post-meeting statement for possible signals on future rate hikes. There was no press conference. The question was how the […]

  1. 1
  2. 2
  3. 3
  4. 4
  5. 5
  6. 6
  7. 7
  8. ...
  9. 150