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Euro area : What if car tariffs lie ahead ?

Among the key risks for our euro area outlook, the threat of US auto tariffs is of major importance. The US Commerce Department’s investigation on national security threats posed by auto imports is due to be concluded on 17 February. Given the complexity of the global auto supply chain, it is very complicated to isolate […]

Still moderate US inflation

CPI inflation in January moderated to 1.6% y-o-y, from 1.9% in December (and versus 2.4% on average over the past twelve months). The biggest driver of this moderation was the sharp drop in global oil prices; given recent oil movements, we estimate that headline inflation could slide towards 1% y-o-y in coming months. Excluding energy […]

Reserve Bank of Australia’s upbeat stance turns upside down

On 6 February, Philip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), sent clear dovish signals, indicating that a rate cut was now as probable as a rate hike. This led to a significant decline in the Australian dollar. This change in the RBA’s stance highlights increasing concerns around the Australian economic outlook. This […]

GLOBAL INDICATORS

January’s deterioration in sentiment was widespread, with the notable exception of the US. However, it is possible that January pessimism was largely caused by December’s poor financial markets. If this is indeed the case, it is likely that we will see a bounce in sentiment in the months ahead, following January’s rebound in markets. The latest global activity hard […]

Weekly View – May awaits her Valentine

Last week’s State of the Union speech revealed little news, but President Trump’s conciliatory tone toward bipartisan deal making was apparent, particularly around infrastructure spending and drug prices. In contrast, he remained firm in his stance on China, although with an economic (i.e. trade), rather than geopolitical emphasis. While there is some uncertainty on the […]

Taking account of regime shifts

Predicting the returns for different asset classes is the Holy Grail of asset allocation. The problem is that risk premiums and returns are instable over time. According to our analysis, over the long term (our data stretches back 115 years) there is a 90 percent probability of achieving an annual average return of 8 percent […]

STAYING NEUTRAL ON US TREASURIES

Since our December note on the 2019 outlook for US Treasuries, the environment for US bonds has shifted dramatically. The 10-year US Treasury yield reached a low of 2.56% on 3 January, the day before Jay Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), made a U-turn from a hawkish to a dovish stance. Taking […]

OPEC+ discipline will be key for oil prices in 2019

Global oil supply is undergoing a structural shift. The US oil industry is growing in importance relative to the OPEC. As a result increased production from non-OPEC producers more than compensated for the output collapse among important OPEC producers such as Iran and Venezuela in 2018. Slowing global growth, and new US pipelines facilities in […]

Weekly View – Christmas in January

US equities recorded their best January performance in over three decades, with the S&P 500 up close to 8%.  The market has been helped by the decision by Fed chairman Jerome Powell to step back from ‘quantitative tightening’, putting rate hikes on hold and contemplating an early end to balance sheet reduction. A number of […]

US jobs report shows recession risk is limited

US employment rose by a solid 304,000 in January (+1.9% year on year, y-o-y), compared with 222,000 in December. The three-month average was a healthy 241,000/month. Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing survey rose to a robust 56.6 in January from 54.3 in December. Overall, these two pieces of data suggest that US macro momentum remains strong […]

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