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Weekly View – A Socialist victory

Spain’s governing Socialist party swept to victory at the weekend’s general elections, which enjoyed the highest turnout since 2008, with a 75% participation rate. Taking 29% of the vote however, the Socialist PSOE party is far short of an absolute majority and will need to form a coalition, which will likely be fragmented and unstable […]

Euro area Q1 GDP growth could be stronger than expected

Next week will be a busy one for Europe, with lots of data releases: European Commission business survey (April); advance GDP (Q1); M3 money supply (March); HICP flash estimate of inflation (April); and final manufacturing purchasing manager indices (PMIs, April). The advance Q1 GDP will be especially closely watched. No euro area GDP breakdown will […]

Weekly View – Europe’s “black hole”

Positive economic data has sent relief through markets, with encouraging news coming out of the world’s two biggest economies. The Chinese economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, as the government’s stimulus policy begins to take effect. In the US, a rebound in consumer spending resulted in retails sales posting their biggest gain […]

China: Q1 growth beats expectations

The National Bureau of Statistics of China published Q1 GDP figures along with some key economic indicators for March. While we had previously flagged the upside risk to our earlier GDP forecast following the rebound in PMIs and strong credit numbers, the latest data releases still surprised to the upside. In light of the strong Q1 results and […]

Business cycle could define Trump’s re-election chances

As we move closer to the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump has been blatantly leaning on the Federal Reserve to be more accommodative and has been trying to appoint nominees to the Fed board who share his preference for loose monetary policy. The countdown to the 2020 elections also seems to be prompting Trump to […]

Swiss policy mix review

The Swiss federal budget is governed by a strict expenditure rule, which is enshrined in the Constitution. Since its introduction, the ratio of public debt-to-GDP has been significantly reduced, falling back to its early-90s level. At the close of 2018, the Swiss federal budget registered a significant surplus of CHF 2.9 billion, compared with budget […]

China: strong credit growth in March again

Chinese credit data surprised on the upside in March, following a surge in January and a sharp fall in February. Monthly total social financing (TSF) came in at Rmb2.86 trillion, much stronger than the market consensus forecast of Rmb1.85 trillion. New bank loans also surprised on the upside at Rmb1.69 trillion, compared with the consensus forecast of […]

Weekly View — Eyes on guidance

Last week delivered encouraging news on the outlook for global trade as improved Chinese exports and credit figures were seen as signs that the global trade slowdown would soon turn. On the back of March’s rebound in Chinese purchasing manager indices (PMIs), this means that as well as good news for the global trade outlook, […]

The year of the doves

With all major central banks now having turned dovish, we can expect the continuation of ultra-low global interest rates in 2019. This is a relief for markets, which have already rallied in response. The greater concern is whether global growth can make a comeback. César Pérez Ruiz, Pictet Wealth Management’s (PWM) Head of Investments & […]

Brexit update: a very British fudge

Following the EU Council summit, 31 October 2019 is the new Brexit deadline. Given that we see limited probability of a sudden unknotting of the current UK parliamentary gridlock, our core scenario is that the deadline will be extended again. The current timeframe is too short to really work on an alternative to the current ‘Withdrawal Agreement’, which has […]

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