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Fed rate hikes well into 2019 may be on the cards

As widely expected, the Fed hiked rates another 25bps on 26 September, continuing its routine of raising rates by 25bps each quarter. The Fed displayed optimism about US growth prospects. Chairman Powell said that the US was in a bright spot that was expected to last. This optimistic tone was echoed by a rise in […]

Credit growth remains buoyant in the euro area

Lending to non-financial corporations in the euro grew by an annual 4.2% in August, its fastest rate since April 2009. Forward-looking indicators suggest that euro area credit growth should remain strong over the coming months. Overall, domestic demand is likely to continue to be the main driver of growth in the euro area, helping to […]

US corporates happy, and investing

The torrent of coverage about trade tensions hides an important positive development: US corporate investment is flourishing, and there are increasing signs this upswing in capital expenditure (capex) could persist. This could in turn mean that the US business cycle has further room to run, despite its advanced age, and that recession is still some […]

Trade Tensions Special

Fresh US tariffs against Chinese imports, followed swiftly by Chinese retaliation, are casting a shadow over prospects for the global economy. But just how much could they hurt growth? And what are the implications for various asset classes and for investors? In this special edition of Perspectives, experts at Pictet Wealth Management (PWM) set out […]

Weekly View – “Tariffed!”

  Today’s kicking in of US tariffs on an extra USD200bn of Chinese imports, and China’s retaliation, marks a notable escalation in the trade war between the two countries. But markets prefer to look at the robust US economy, with strong M&A activity also helping (of which Comcast’s winning bid for Sky is just the […]

Kicking the tyres

US President Donald Trump has shown a particularly strong interest in the US car industry – which carries both significant symbolic and political weight – and therefore in trade flows of foreign cars into the US. The recently negotiated trade agreement with Mexico is mostly about car manufacturing, particularly aimed at halting the ongoing displacement […]

Business indicators present a contrasting picture of the euro area

Euro area flash composite PMI dipped slightly in September, coming in slightly below consensus expectations. Activity in services picked up and weakened further in manufacturing, which continued its decline since the start of the year, falling to 53.3 in September from 54.6 in August. New export orders failed to grow for the first time since […]

Italian material deprivation rates still the worst among large euro area economies

Severe material deprivation rates gauge the proportion of people whose living conditions are severely affected by a lack of resources. According to Eurostat, “it represents the proportion of people living in households that cannot afford at least four of the following nine items: mortgage or rent payments, utility bills, hire purchase instalments or other loan […]

Fed preview: raising the ceiling

The Fed is very likely to raise rates by 25bps on 26 September, dismissing the trade war risk and emphasising the strong domestic economy and healthy job market instead. With a rate rise widely anticipated, the focus will be on any signals about future rates. We expect Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference and the update […]

Cut to Swiss inflation forecast

At the end of its quarterly monetary assessment meeting, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left its main policy rates unchanged. Also unchanged from the last quarterly meeting in June was the central bank’s assessment of the Swiss franc as “high valued” and its characterisation of the situation on foreign exchange as “fragile”. The SNB emphasized […]

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