Asset Allocation On a tactical, rolling three-to-six-month basis, we are tilting away from a bullish to a neutral stance on developed-market equities as trade and political frictions are rising. That said, we remain more upbeat on their prospects after the summer. Recent sell-offs have vindicated our cautiousness regarding emerging-market assets in general. But valuations are […]
Asset Allocation Overall, we remain cautiously optimistic about risk assets. We expect economic growth to rebound after a ‘soft patch’ and corporate profitability remains strong, as revealed in Q1 earnings reports. But we recognise that the environment is becoming more challenging for investors. The current environment requires active managers’ heightened sense of adaptability. While we […]
Christophe Donay, Chief Strategist, Head of Asset Allocation & Macro Research, Pictet Wealth Management Since the beginning of the year, depending on currency, many asset classes have recorded negative or only marginally positive returns. In US dollar terms, US and global equity indices (MSCI World) have produced total returns of below 0.5% since 1 January, […]
Asset Allocation In spite of a certain loss of momentum in positive surprises, a strong Q1 earnings season continues to justify our bullish stance on equities in most regions. We reiterate our negative view on core government bonds and remain short duration. Volatility is still higher than last year, and has increased noticeably in the […]
Asset Allocation While macroeconomic and corporate fundamentals still favour risk assets, challenges have been steadily increasing and a lot of good news is already priced into valuations. We sold part of our equity overweight during the early March rally. Even though we have become more prudent about equities’ short-term prospects, we expect to be able […]
Asset Allocation Although markets steadied as February progressed, volatility is unlikely to return to the low levels seen last year. Yet, after a good earnings season, and with strong, synchronised growth, we remain comfortable with our positive stance on developed-market equities. The potential for increased volatility opens the way for trading opportunities – but also […]
Asset Allocation Current conditions vindicate our continued bullish stance on equities in developed markets and emerging markets (Asia more than Latam). Valuations are high, but they are justified by upwards adjustments to expected earnings growth. But with long-term rates rising, we are expecting a rise in volatility from their low current levels. This should benefit […]
Asset Allocation Economic and earnings growth continue to offer good momentum and the possibility of upside surprises for 2018, so we remain overweight developed market (DM) equities. However, uncertainties over other key aspects of the outlook mean that investors may be unwise to lower their defences. We are keeping tail risk mitigation in portfolios. Emerging […]
Asset allocation Economic and earnings growth continue to offer good momentum and the possibility of upside surprises for 2018, so we remain overweight DM equities. However, uncertainties over other key aspects of the outlook mean that investors may be unwise to lower their defences. We are keeping tail risk mitigation in portfolios. EM equities should […]
Asset allocation We remain constructive on equities, which are being underpinned in particular by robust earnings growth. However, there are signs of pressure, especially in forex markets, and occasional spikes in volatility are likely, notably as a result of geopolitical risk. It is worth considering risk mitigation for portfolios put options on equity indices are […]
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