Asset Allocation Current conditions vindicate our continued bullish stance on equities in developed markets and emerging markets (Asia more than Latam). Valuations are high, but they are justified by upwards adjustments to expected earnings growth. But with long-term rates rising, we are expecting a rise in volatility from their low current levels. This should benefit […]
Asset Allocation Economic and earnings growth continue to offer good momentum and the possibility of upside surprises for 2018, so we remain overweight developed market (DM) equities. However, uncertainties over other key aspects of the outlook mean that investors may be unwise to lower their defences. We are keeping tail risk mitigation in portfolios. Emerging […]
Asset allocation Economic and earnings growth continue to offer good momentum and the possibility of upside surprises for 2018, so we remain overweight DM equities. However, uncertainties over other key aspects of the outlook mean that investors may be unwise to lower their defences. We are keeping tail risk mitigation in portfolios. EM equities should […]
Asset allocation We remain constructive on equities, which are being underpinned in particular by robust earnings growth. However, there are signs of pressure, especially in forex markets, and occasional spikes in volatility are likely, notably as a result of geopolitical risk. It is worth considering risk mitigation for portfolios put options on equity indices are […]
Asset allocation Headline volatility on equity markets remains low, and given robust economic and earnings growth we are still constructive on equities, particularly the euro area and Japan. We are neutral on the US, selective on Swiss stocks, and underweight the UK. However, there are signs of pressure, notably in forex markets, and headline volatility […]
Asset allocation There are two ways to hedge geopolitical risk: buying gold or buying protection for portfolios. We prefer the latter, to take advantage of current low volatility and because gold’s gains so far this year reflect the depreciation of the dollar. We remain constructive on DM equities, particularly the euro area and Japan. We […]
Asset allocation We retain a slight overweight in DM equities owing to good fundamentals, but it is especially important at present to be well protected against downside risk. Markets appear unduly complacent, and volatility could rise in the coming months. This will create opportunities for tactical trading and especially hedge funds. Low correlations and a […]
Asset allocation As central bank support starts to be withdrawn, volatility could well rise. We are still slightly long equities, since fundamentals are supportive, but have bought put options on the S&P 500 to guard against downside risks. A rise in volatility will create opportunities for tactical trading and especially hedge funds. Commodities Oil prices […]
Asset allocation Markets have continued to rally on strong fundamentals. It has been important to stay invested, and we continue to favour DM equities. However, markets appear unduly complacent, and we have taken advantage of current low volatility to scale back our risk exposure. We reduced our equity overweight in June by selling part of […]
Asset Allocation Markets are starting to revise their expectations for the Trump administration. We still see some prospect of a US fiscal stimulus, but it is likely to be later (not kicking in before 2018) and less ambitious than hoped. Improving economic performance and strong earnings growth support our positive stance on DM equities, despite […]
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