Asset allocation As central bank support starts to be withdrawn, volatility could well rise. We are still slightly long equities, since fundamentals are supportive, but have bought put options on the S&P 500 to guard against downside risks. A rise in volatility will create opportunities for tactical trading and especially hedge funds. Commodities Oil prices […]
Asset allocation Markets have continued to rally on strong fundamentals. It has been important to stay invested, and we continue to favour DM equities. However, markets appear unduly complacent, and we have taken advantage of current low volatility to scale back our risk exposure. We reduced our equity overweight in June by selling part of […]
Asset Allocation Markets are starting to revise their expectations for the Trump administration. We still see some prospect of a US fiscal stimulus, but it is likely to be later (not kicking in before 2018) and less ambitious than hoped. Improving economic performance and strong earnings growth support our positive stance on DM equities, despite […]
Asset allocation The first quarter was exceptionally strong for risk assets, and the outlook remains good for developed market (DM) equities. We remain comfortable with our overweight in developed market equities, but it would be wise not to take too much risk in the coming quarter. EM assets may offer attractive opportunities on a tactical […]
Asset allocation We remain comfortable with our overweight position in developed-market (DM) equities and believe there are good reasons to be positive on Japanese equities. With volatility low and risks looming in the short term, this is a good time to add protection to portfolios. We have bought derivative protection on EUR high-yield bonds and […]
Asset allocation Improved earnings growth should support attractive returns on developed-market equities. We still expect Treasury yields to rise this year. The 35-year fall in long-term interest rates, during which government bonds provided both strong returns and protection, has probably ended. The protection that government bonds provide for portfolios is therefore set to come at […]
Since 2009, major central banks such as the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and others have largely determined the trends in the major asset classes of both emerging and developed countries: equities, sovereign and corporate bonds, and currencies. Investors found their guiding light in the central banks. […]
The November 2012 issue of Perspectives is now available for downloading. Here is November’s topic of the month: the history of asset allocation as part of the process of constructing investment portfolios has been influenced by a theoretical framework that has been constantly shifting. Models for computing expected returns and optimising risk/reward profiles in portfolios […]
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