In August, German industrial production increased by 1.4% m-o-m, better than consensus expectations (1.0% m-o-m). Moreover, the July figure was revised up from -1.7% m-o-m to -1.1% m-o-m. As a result, July and August average industrial production continued to increase (by 0.6% q-o-q compared with Q2, against 1.5% q-o-q in Q2). Factory orders: disappointing […]
The ISM manufacturing survey published on Tuesday once again delivered a positive surprise. The headline index inched up further from 55.7 in August to 56.2 in September, above consensus estimates (54.0). ISM manufacturing: ‘employment’ sub-component improved in September The ‘new orders’ sub-component eased down slightly, while the ‘production’ sub-index inched up marginally, but both remained […]
The vast majority of asset classes are being held in thrall by the prospect of the Fed deciding to press ahead with scaling back its buying of bonds. Repercussions from this are not just confined to the US though. equities Switchback ride for equities Shares have been unsettled by geopolitical tensions and expectancy about Fed decisions. […]
The Fed’s hints in May about the likely onset of tapering of its third round of quantitative easing have apparently convinced investors ever since of the wisdom of starting to withdraw funds from the emerging world where in recent years they had gone in search of superior returns and yields. Financial markets being influenced more […]
Long-term interest rates can be split into two fundamental components. One relates to market expectations as regards monetary policy (expectations for short-term rates). The other reflects a maturity premium, i.e. a premium for the risk of tying up capital long-term against the more reliable option of rolling over short-term debt instruments or Treasury bills. The level of this premium is influenced by, on the one […]
Back in May, the US Federal Reserve hinted at the likelihood of scaling down or ‘tapering’ its third QE round (QE3). This deliberate sea-change forms part of the general process of normalisation underway in the world’s largest economy. Although the impact of the Fed’s comments on US interest rates hit home fast, the global economy […]
Just as the US begins to emerge from the long balance sheet recession from which it has suffered since 2008, then another express train, this time from the emerging markets, hurtles into the station without warning. Admittedly, emerging market equities have underperformed developed equities since the fourth quarter of 2010. At first, this underperformance raised […]
In this edition: • CIO Yves Bonzon’s editorial outlook: One train may hide another • Macroeconomics: The cost of the US monetary brake • Strategy: Clouds of risk bubbling up over emerging markets • Headline news: Monetary tightening in various parts of the globe • Asset classes: Financial markets hanging on the Fed’s every word […]
In the fast-changing world of digital media, there are the entrepreneurs who create start-ups, business angels who finance their first steps, venture capitalists who provide more substantial funding, and investment bankers who take the most successful through to maturity. But as innovation gathers pace and disruptive new technologies sweep away traditional industries, the barriers between these different activities are breaking down, and […]
The publication of the ISM manufacturing survey last Tuesday was once again a positive surprise. The composite index inched up further from 55.4 in July to 55.7 in August, well above consensus estimates (54.0). ISM manufacturing: new orders sub-component up sharply The monthly improvement was particularly positive for the ‘new orders’ sub- component, which jumped […]
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