Posts Tagged ‘china’

Navigating through rollercoaster markets

April insights from Pictet Wealth Management’s Asset Allocation & Macro Research team The current decline in US profit margins would usually herald a recession. The continued decline in earnings expectations is a concern, and suggests limited upside for equities. But if the resources sector is stripped out, the trend is much less worrying. Moreover, fears of […]

China: Something has to give

China could well attain growth of 6.5-7% this year and next, but longer out there are reasons to doubt that China will avoid its own ‘Minsky moment’

In the April issue of ‘Perspectives’

In the April issue of Perspectives, Christophe Donay, head of macroeconomic research at Pictet, argues that the Chinese fiscal and monetary authorities still have plentiful resources to ensure that China achieves a growth rate of 6.5-7.0% this year and next. But China will sooner or later face Donay’s version of a ‘financial trilemma’ stemming from […]

China policy moves: encouraging for the short term

Lending to the economy reached record levels in China in January, suggesting that the authorities are prepared to do more to support growth. A stabilisation of the yuan and an admission by the authorities of mistakes in their approach to financial markets are also positive signs. Market fears around China may therefore temporarily abate. However, […]

2016 off to a turbulent start

A market rebound now appears to be under way. Internal market dynamics suggested that conditions were ripe for this, and central banks seem to have provided the trigger that markets were looking for.

China: policy mis-steps fuel sell-offs, but little change in fundamentals

Chinese equity markets experienced a substantial sell-off in early January, with the CSI 300 losing 7% on both 4 and 7 January. This sent jitters across global financial markets. The latest bout of market instability in China does not appear to have been related to any change in the country’s economic fundamentals. Rather, a conjunction […]

China faces a delicate rebalancing

China is going through a transition phase, and the Chinese authorities face a tricky challenge to avoid a crash, explains Christophe Donay, Chief Strategist at Pictet Wealth Management.

Eurozone economy picking up some momentum

If we look back to our core economic scenario outlined in November last year, three of the key developments we had pinpointed already materialised in January this year: firm anchoring of US growth; quantitative easing at the European Central Bank (ECB); resurgence of systemic risk in the eurozone. On the latter score, the constructive talks […]

Shift in economic regime in the US

The global economy is becoming increasingly desynchronised. A shift in macroeconomic regime has materialised in the US, with the business and economic cycle taking over as driver from monetary policy. In Europe, pressure is mounting on the European Central Bank (ECB) to unfurl a programme of quantitative easing (QE) at a time when tumbling oil […]

US economy – the touchstone for the global recovery

The US Federal Reserve’s exit strategy by tapering its quantitative easing is part and parcel of the process of normalisation that the growth and inflation regimes of the world’s premier economy are undergoing. In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) may well have to push through more measures yet to counter the risk posed by […]

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