Posts Tagged ‘china’

China: Second quarter GDP and June macroeconomic data

Real GDP growth came in at 9.5% in the second quarter, slightly down from the first quarter figure of 9.7%, China’s economy is doing well, despite worries over potential excessive tightening. We believe that the tightening process is over and we expect a smooth economic slowdown during the second semester. For the whole year, the […]

China: Fifth Interest Rate Hike

Today, the People’s Bank of China – the Chinese central bank – announced a fifth interest rate hike of 25 bps on one-year deposit and lending rates to 3.50% and 6.56% respectively. This hike is evenly distributed on both deposit and lending rates over the duration curve – except for demand deposits that were not […]

China declares victory on inflation

China’s Premier Wen Jiabao declared in the FT today that “overall price level is within a controllable range and is expected to drop steadily”. This declaration confirms our core scenario of headline inflation declining in the second semester from roughly 6% in June towards 4.3% by the end of the year. We believe that this […]

China: May Manufacturing PMI

The May manufacturing PMI in China declined to 52.0 from 52.9 in April and 53.4 in March, above market expectations (51.6). This decline underlines once more that the tightening process that began in early 2010 and accelerated during the autumn is having more effect on the real economy. The new orders component of the manufacturing […]

China, a new global leader is emerging

For almost one year, the Chinese equity market has been struggling with a dreadful combination: persistent inflationary pressures and the risk of a serious economic slowdown resulting from the PBoC monetary policy tightening. However, the Chinese economic growth is the strongest in the world, with a rate of more than 9%. The future of China […]

China: between paper tiger and soaring dragon

Today we summarize the long-term trends of China’s economy and the transformations at  work. These highlights are more structural than cyclical, and portray the pattern of Chinese growth, its sustainability and the challenges for the coming years. The size of the Chinese economy put into perspective China may be the world’s second largest economy, but […]

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