Eurozone policy mix remains incomplete The European Central Bank had already signalled its intentions and did not disappoint investors when, on 21 January, it announced a plan to acquire sovereign debt to a minimum of €60bn monthly up to September 2016.To understand what this level of quantitative easing can do to boost the eurozone economy, […]
At Thursday’s press conference, Mario Draghi has announced the ECB’s QE programme, labelled Expanded Asset Purchase Programme (EAPP), which, in several aspects, surpasses the expectations fostered by the drip-drip of leaks in the days running up to the meeting. The main features are: The ECB will buy bonds issued by euro area central governments, agencies […]
As expected, Mario Draghi did not announce any new measures at today’s press conference. His reaction to recent disappointing economic news had, however, been widely awaited. He clearly appeared concerned about the impact of current geopolitical risks, in particular those from the Ukrainian crisis. The euro area recovery process is likely to remain fragile and […]
Since the ECB’s last Governing Council (GC) press conference, the expectations regarding the measures to be announced on 5 June have steadily increased. On top of the unusual firm pre-commitment shown at the time, economic news since then has tended to confirm the picture of a fragile recovery, too-low inflation and depressed monetary dynamics, an […]
The prolonged low level of inflation and the stubbornly high level of the euro seem to have finally convinced a majority of the ECB’s Governing Council (GC) to act. In a rare pre-committed statement, Mario Draghi announced yesterday that the GC is comfortable with acting in June. However, at this point we do not expect […]
As expected, nothing concrete was announced yesterday. Nevertheless, Mario Draghi hinted at some interesting points, but it required reading between the lines. During the press conference the ECB president emphasised the central bank’s forward guidance. On several occasions he referred to the current low level of inflation and the risk of seeing this situation last longer: […]
After two consecutive months of decline, German industrial production, including construction, increased by 1.9% m-o-m in November, much better than consensus expectations (1.5% m-o-m) and therefore more than reversing the 1.2% m-o-m contraction in October. Nevertheless, on average (October and November) for Q4, industrial production is still 0.2% q-o-q below the Q3 average. Factory orders […]
The Ecofin Council has finally reached an agreement on a general approach to a Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM) with the creation of a single decision body named the Single Resolution Board (SRB) and a Single Fund for the resolution of banks (SRF). The adoption of an SRM is a necessary element for the euro area […]
Monetary developments weakened further in October. The annual growth rate of eurozone M3 monetary aggregate decelerated by 1.4% y-o-y after posting 2.0% y-o-y in September, below the consensus expectations (1.7% y-o-y) and marking the lowest annual growth rate since October 2011. Meanwhile, loans to the private sector, which were already negative (-1.6% y-o-y) in September, […]
Measures taken by central banks and the way in which they communicate their monetary policy to the world at large in the coming weeks will have a significant bearing on the fate of the global economy. The knock-on effects on national and international economic indicators from the Fed’s statements and the PBoC’s pronouncements and actions in both May and June […]
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