Focus on equity markets Our investment strategy reflects the macroeconomic environment which we describe below. Over the past few weeks, financial markets continued to be torn between the deflationary forces of the global economic backdrop and renewed optimism linked to improved economic data. Markets continue to be in such a state, alternating hopes of central […]
Equity markets were in high-volatility mode in the second half of 2011, reflecting intense pressures exerted by systemic risk, but they have now shifted back into the average-volatility regime. Find more analysis and views in this month’s Perspectives, available for downloading. Reflation hopes encouraging the markets Economic numbers have continued to show progress in both […]
Success for the second 3Y LTRO Following today’s second 3-year long-term refinancing operation (3Y LTRO), 800 financial institutions tapped €529.5bn liquidity, well above December’s first operation, which was worth 489bn (bid by 523 participants). The amount was also above the 470bn predicted by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. €311bn additional liquidity In order to estimate the […]
Monetary aggregates remain depressed The annual growth rate of the monetary aggregate M3 jumped to 2.5% y-o-y in January, from 1.5% in December 2011, but remains well below its reference value (4.5%). Loans to the private sector remained subdued at 1.1% y-o-y compared to 1.0% the previous month. The 3Y LTRO[definition] helped to alleviate the […]
The February 2012 issue of Perspectives is now available for download. We continue previewing articles, with Economist Jean-Pierre Durante’s view on the eurozone crisis in the spotlight today. Crisis coming to an end? Greece is on the brink of defaulting, Portugal seems to be following it into the abyss, but financial markets no longer appear […]
The February 2012 issue of Perspectives is now available for download. You will find below the opening column, written by Chief Investment Officer Yves Bonzon. The first of November 2011 will probably come to be seen as a key crossroads in the eurozone crisis – the moment when Jean-Claude Trichet handed the helm of the […]
Eurozone statistics are likely to continue to deteriorate probably until mid-Q1 due to the traditional lag between surveys and activity, even if the recent stabilisation in surveys is confirmed in the following months. As a result, we maintain our forecast of a contraction of 0.1% on average for 2012 for the whole euro area. Nevertheless, […]
The European Central Bank, under the helm of its new President Mario Draghi, lowered interest rates by 25bp yesterday. By acting for the second month in a row, the Governing Council confirmed that the deterioration of the economic conditions are sufficiently serious to justify bringing back the refinancing rate to 1%. The refi rate has […]
The work before the European authorities appears too huge to be solved in just a few days. The European crisis was not solved on Sunday and probably won’t be solved on Wednesday, when European heads of state are meeting once more. Five areas are currently in the focus of policymakers: sustainability of public finances, Greece, […]
Jean-Claude Trichet announced yesterday several measures designed to guarantee large amounts of liquidity throughout 2011 and 2012. A 12-month liquidity supply operation will be launched on 25 October and another 13- month operation on 20 December. The unusual 13-month maturity is probably designed to cover end-of-year liquidity needs which are traditionally important due to accounting […]
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