The September 2012 issue of Perspectives is now available for reading and downloading. Today, we look at asset classes and currencies: Implied volatility, a key parameter we use for drawing up our forecasts for how financial markets are likely to behave, diminished quite noticeably over the summer. This reflects the driftdown by most indicators of […]
Yves Bonzon, Chief Investment Officier, explains that the levels necessary to trigger quantitative easing measures in the US have not been reached, shifting the responsibility for growth to Europe and the political measures that will be discussed in September. The markets will be volatile until then and the preferred asset classes remain investment grade corporate […]
How Europe’s equities perform has always tended to be quite closely connected to what happens to share prices on Wall Street. Since 2011 though, the two seem to have been going their separate ways. European bourses are being penalised by top-heavy cyclical exposure and underexposure to technology, translating into much greater variability in profit margins. […]
Financial markets are trapped between two fronts. On the one hand, they are reacting to developments in the eurozone debt crisis which is stoking up deflationary pressures. The other front is more favourable: the positive influence of a US economy progressing towards self-sustaining growth. Equities Stock markets pausing for breath Bonds Renewed interest in […]
Equities, high-yield and, to a lesser extent, investment-grade corporate bonds are among those assets benefiting most from the prevailing mode on markets of ‘average volatility’, according to our definition. Find more analysis and views in this month’s Perspectives, available for downloading. Favourable volatility regime Equities Euphoria not subsiding Bonds Sovereign bonds resilient as optimism […]
January 2012 surprised most investors with a stark increase of 4.4% on the S&P 500 and 4.0% on the DJ Stoxx 600, further extending the rally that started in December. Once again the January rule of thumb proved to be true. Really ? The January effect is widely known among investors as a calendar anomaly […]
Corporate earnings are expected to grow by 9% in the United States and by 8% in Europe in 2012. As leading economic indicators are stabilising in Europe and improving in the United States, pressure on estimated 2012 earnings should ease. Thus, excluding a new financial shock, most adjustments on estimated earnings are likely to have […]
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