Leaks of steam from the German euro area locomotive are likely to trigger additional worries on the future of the monetary union. Furthermore, weak German figures for the second quarter are likely to reinforce the impression that synchronic austerity measures in Europe are killing growth. This will certainly result in widening sovereign spreads within the […]
Mario Draghi was expected to address three points at yesterday’s press conference: i) a possible third 3Y LTRO, ii) hint on the probability of a monetary policy decision, and iii) details on its new concept of “Growth Compact”. The market proved fairly disappointed with what Mario Draghi had to say. On a possible new LTRO, Mario […]
We have updated our view on the EUR/USD cross strengthening towards 1.40 in the next 6 months, due to four indicators suggesting that the single currency should appreciate: 1. Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic have lengthened their balance sheets via two quantitative easing (QE) programmes and an operation Twist in the […]
The February 2012 issue of Perspectives is now available for download. We continue previewing articles, with Economist Jean-Pierre Durante’s view on the eurozone crisis in the spotlight today. Crisis coming to an end? Greece is on the brink of defaulting, Portugal seems to be following it into the abyss, but financial markets no longer appear […]
The February 2012 issue of Perspectives is now available for download. Here are this month’s headline news from around the world. Emerging economies: inflation receding Monetary authorities in several emerging countries can now relax their monetary grips as inflationary pressures have diminished. If they need to, governments in these countries also have the option, thanks […]
The February 2012 issue of Perspectives is now available for download. You will find below the opening column, written by Chief Investment Officer Yves Bonzon. The first of November 2011 will probably come to be seen as a key crossroads in the eurozone crisis – the moment when Jean-Claude Trichet handed the helm of the […]
The leaders of the members states of the European Union discussed employment and economic policies at yesterday’s informal meeting. First, the so-called fiscal compact aimed at strengthening fiscal discipline and introducing more automatic sanctions and stricter surveillance within the euro area was finalised. It has been renamed the “Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance”. Under […]
Has something changed in the way the euro area crisis is perceived? Despite the downgrade of nine euro area countries (see illustration hereunder), which resulted in the EFSF losing its AAA rating, and the threat of a spiral of downgrade and defaults, markets have remained positive. The upbeat mood seen since the beginning of the […]
Eurozone statistics are likely to continue to deteriorate probably until mid-Q1 due to the traditional lag between surveys and activity, even if the recent stabilisation in surveys is confirmed in the following months. As a result, we maintain our forecast of a contraction of 0.1% on average for 2012 for the whole euro area. Nevertheless, […]
As widely expected, the SNB kept its target three-month LIBOR rate on hold at 0.0% at its quarterly monetary policy meeting today. Regarding its exchange rate policy, the central bank didn’t raise the floor set at CHF 1.20 per euro. Expectations that this floor would be raised to 1.25 or 1.30 at today’s SNB quarterly meeting were […]
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