The eurozone flash manufacturing PMI decreased from 51.4 in August to 51.1 in September, a result that was against consensus expectations of 51.7. By contrast, the eurozone flash services PMI edged up by 1.4 points to 52.1 in September, above consensus expectations (51.0) and reached its highest level since June 2011. As a result, the […]
Eurozone industrial production fell by 1.5% m-o-m in July, much worse than consensus expectations (-0.3%). June was revised slightly down, from 0.7% m-o-m to 0.6%. In comparison with last year, activity decreased by 2.1% y-o-y in July, a marked deterioration from the -0.4% y-o-y recorded in June. As a result, production fell to its weakest […]
Monetary aggregates deteriorate further Monetary developments weakened further in July. M3 growth decelerated from 2.4% y-o-y in June to 2.2%. Meanwhile, loans to the private sector plunged deeper into negative territory, from -1.6% y-o-y to -1.9%. These developments are clearly at odds with recent good news. Large negative flows for companies The depressed dynamics in […]
Euro area expanded in Q2 Eurostat’s preliminary estimate showed that euro area real GDP expanded by 0.3% q-o-q in Q2 (1.1% q-o-q annualised), coming in slightly ahead of consensus expectations (0.2% q-o-q) after contracting 0.3% q-o-q in Q1. Thus, technically speaking, the euro area exited recession in Q2, after GDP fell for six consecutive quarters, marking the longest post-war […]
In July, euro area flash PMI surveys, based solely on Germany and France extended their upward trend and came in stronger than expected. Indeed, the flash euro area manufacturing PMI increased from 48.8 in June to 50.1 in July, above consensus expectations (49.1). Moreover, the flash euro area services PMI rose by 1.3 to 49.6 […]
Amid rising interest rates imported from the United States and renewed tensions on sovereign debt due to the political crisis in Portugal, Mario Draghi yesterday had the difficult task of convincing the market that the ECB’s monetary policy will remain accommodative for a long period of time and that the Governing Council (GC) was still far from […]
Europe is stuck in its longest recession since the end of World War II, and inflation rates are disconcertingly trending downwards. Our scenario for economic growth to quicken in the US in the second half of this year stands in stark contrast to what is happening in Europe. A whole raft of economic reforms are necessary in China in order […]
In May’s press conference, Mario Draghi created several expectations: 1. Further refi rate cut: “we will stand ready to act if needed” 2. The deposit rate, currently at 0%, could be brought negative: “we are technically ready” 3. Joint measures could be taken with the European Investment Bank (EIB) to revive the ABS market in […]
-0.2% q-o-q GDP growth confirmed in Q1 Eurostat’s second release for Q1 2013 GDP confirmed the preliminary estimate of a 0.2% q-o-q fall in GDP (-0.8% q-o-q annualised), consistent with a figure of -1.1% y-o-y. This was the sixth consecutive quarter of contraction for the euro area as a whole. Improvement in private consumption The […]
Eurostat’s preliminary estimate showed that real GDP dropped by 0.2% q-o-q in Q1 (-0.9 % q-o-q annualised), worse than consensus expectations (-0.1% q-o-q) and after a contraction of 0.6% q-o-q in Q4. With this sixth consecutive quarter of decline, the euro area is experiencing its longest-lasting recession since the post-war period. Heterogeneous figures in core […]
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