The Eurostat’s second release of Q4 euro area GDP confirmed the preliminary estimate of a decline of 0.6% q-o-q (-2.3% q-o-q annualised), consistent with a y-o-y figure of -0.9%. It is the fifth consecutive month of contraction. However, we are sticking with our scenario of a lesser contraction in Q1 2013 (-0.1 % q-o-q) than […]
The February 2013 issue of Perspectives is now available for downloading. In this month’s strategy section, Pictet’s analysts explain that although some near-term risk factors, such as those stemming from the ‘fiscal cliff’ in the US, have been dispelled, other quite significant ones, such as solvency risk for peripheral eurozone member states, are still blighting […]
The tone during yesterday’s ECB press conference was slightly less upbeat than January’s. Accelerating disinflationary process, the impact of the euro’s strength, the fragility of confidence and the downside risks to the economic recovery, give the impression that the Governing Council has not closed the door for further easing measures. As we continue to be […]
Today’s Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI) release confirms the contrasted picture between Germany and the rest of the euro area. Indeed, the impressive improvement (+ 3.8 points) in the German manufacturing PMI is in line with the recent business confidence surveys (IFO, Zew) and confirms our scenario of a marked recovery of the German economy in […]
The flash euro area manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) improved strongly by 1.4 points to 47.5 in January, well above consensus expectations (46.6). Moreover, the flash euro area services PMI picked up from 47.8 in December to 48.3 in January, better than the consensus expectations (48.0). As a result, the flash euro area composite PMI […]
Euro area industrial production decreased in November, for the third month running, and reached its lowest since April 2010. Indeed, industrial production fell by 0.3% m-o-m in November, worse than the 0.2% m-o-m rise expected. The October figure was revised up marginally from -1.4% m-o-m to -1.0% m-o-m. Industrial production plunged for all periphery countries […]
We continue to expect that the ECB will have to act decisively to help the depressed economies to recover. A rate cut could help, but more importantly unorthodox measures to reduce interest rates for consumers and businesses will be required. A decision to accept banks’ loans as a form of collateral could be an example […]
The agreement reached at last week’s EU Summit is close to the smallest common denominator. It is true that Mrs Angela Merkel had very little room to manoeuvre in an electoral year, but the consequence is that the euro area integration is moving forward with only half measures and imperfect solutions. The risk is that the […]
Today’s relatively good outcome in euro area manufacturing PMI numbers tends to confirm recent signs of stabilisation. Nevertheless, the survey’s stabilisation at a low level is in line with an ongoing contraction in economic activity. Accordingly, real GDP is confirmed as recording a deeper contraction in Q4 than in Q3. Hopes of recovery in 2013 […]
• Euro area Q3 GDP growth confirmed by second estimate at -0.1% q-o-q • Exports remained the main support for growth in Q3 • Very weak domestic demand, with public consumption and investment contracting, private consumption stagnating • Our GDP growth forecast remains unchanged, with the recession lasting into H1 2013 and a modest recovery […]
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