The ISM Manufacturing survey for March 2016 was published on Friday last week. The headline reading bounced back further from 49.5 in February to an eight-month high of 51.8 in March, above consensus expectations (51.0). Although the ISM index has recovered markedly so far this year, it was particularly weak at the end of last […]
Euro area business surveys (PMIs and IFO) showed renewed signs of life in March after the drops seen in the first two months of the year. Surveys also highlighted the contrasting trend between the manufacturing sector, dented by a subdued external environment, and the services sector. Flash PMIs above consensus expectations According to Markit’s preliminary […]
Swiss GDP surprised on the upside in Q4, driven by robust consumption. Looking ahead, our scenario for the Swiss economy remains unchanged. For 2016, we expect Swiss GDP to expand by 1.1% and headline inflation to average -0.6%. The 0.4% q-o-q rise in the Q4 figure came after a downwardly revised Q3 figure of -0.1% q-o-q. For […]
Nominal total retail sales rose by 0.2% m-o-m in January, slightly above consensus expectations (+0.1%). Moreover, December’s number was revised up from -0.1% to +0.2%. Total sales were dented by a 3.1% m-o-m fall in nominal sales at gasoline stations (on the back of lower gasoline prices). Nominal auto sales increased by 0.6% m-o-m, in […]
US real GDP, curbed by lower stockbuilding and a slowdown in consumption growth, grew by a soft 0.7% in Q4. We have cut our forecast for 2016. However, we still expect reasonably healthy growth (2.0%). In Q4 2015, US real GDP grew by a weak 0.7% q-o-q annualised, just a fraction below consensus estimates (+0.8%). […]
Spain and France are the first countries among the euro area’s largest economies to publish GDP figures. According to preliminary estimates, Spanish and French real GDP expanded by 0.8% and 0.2% q-o-q respectively in Q4, both in line with consensus expectations. Over the year, GDP rose by 3.2% and 1.1% respectively in Spain and in […]
The ISM manufacturing survey published on Tuesday was surprisingly weak. The headline index fell sharply from 56.5 in December to 51.3 in January, well below consensus estimates (56.0), and its lowest reading since May 2013. The deterioration was quite broad-based, with the fall in the ‘new orders’ sub-component particularly striking, as it plunged from a […]
In Q4 2013, US real GDP growth was quite strong for the second quarter in a row. Economic activity expanded by 3.2% q-o-q annualised, in line with consensus expectations. On a year-on-year basis, GDP growth accelerated from 2.0% in Q3 to 2.7% in Q4. Strong pick-up in private final demand growth Details of the report […]
Monetary developments weakened further in December. The annual growth rate of eurozone M3 monetary aggregate slowed to 1.0% y-o-y in December after posting 1.5% y-o-y growth in November, below consensus expectations (1.7% y-o-y) and posting the lowest annual growth rate since September 2010. Meanwhile, lending to the private sector remained at -2.3% y-o-y in December, […]
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