It was becoming increasingly clear that the Fed wanted to make a start soon on scaling back its purchases of assets under QE3 but, in parallel, it wished to convince all and sundry that tapering does not equate to monetary tightening. With these objectives in mind, yesterday’s ‘tapering’ announcement was clearly a success. Modest ‘tapering’ […]
Composite PMI: first increase after two month of decline In December, the flash euro area manufacturing PMI expanded by 1.1 points to 52.7, well above consensus expectations (51.9). By contrast, the flash euro area services PMI continued its downward trend by declining from 51.2 in November to 51.0 in December, below consensus expectations (51.5). As […]
In contrast to the increase expected by consensus (0.3% m-o-m), eurozone industrial production (excluding construction) fell sharply by 1.1% m-o-m in October, recording the largest monthly decrease since September 2012 and its second successive month of contraction. The September figure was revised up from -0.5% m-o-m to -0.2% m-o-m. As a result, the October figure […]
Non-farm payroll employment rose by 203,000 m-o-m in November 2013, above consensus expectations (+185,000). October’s figure was revised marginally down (from +204,000 to +200,000), but September’s number slightly up (from +163,000 to +175,000). Net revisions thus cumulated to a small +8,000. As this series on job creation is often very volatile (see chart above), we […]
The ISM manufacturing survey published on Monday once again delivered a positive surprise. The headline index inched up further from 56.4 in October to 57.3 in November, above consensus estimates (55.1), marking its highest level since April 2011. ISM manufacturing: widespread improvement in November The details of the reports showed that the improvement was quite […]
Nominal total retail sales rose by 0.4% m-o-m in October, above consensus expectations of a 0.1% increase. Moreover, September’s figure was revised up from -0.1% to +0.0%. This increase was partly linked to a 1.4% m-o-m rise in nominal car sales. This kind of rebound was somewhat surprising as already published data on unit car […]
Total industrial production rose by a strong 0.6% m-o-m in September, above consensus expectations of a 0.4% increase. The monthly change recorded in August was unrevised (+0.4%). Manufacturing output growth: modest improvement in Q3 This strength was linked to a large extent to a sharp bounce-back in the production of utilities (+4.4% m-o-m), following a […]
After six consecutive months of improvement, the euro area flash composite PMI decreased from 52.2 in September to 51.5 in October, while the consensus had expected further improvement (52.4). It is worth noting that today’s fall merely offsets the previous month’s increase and the index is still higher than it was at the beginning of […]
In August, German industrial production increased by 1.4% m-o-m, better than consensus expectations (1.0% m-o-m). Moreover, the July figure was revised up from -1.7% m-o-m to -1.1% m-o-m. As a result, July and August average industrial production continued to increase (by 0.6% q-o-q compared with Q2, against 1.5% q-o-q in Q2). Factory orders: disappointing […]
The ISM manufacturing survey published on Tuesday once again delivered a positive surprise. The headline index inched up further from 55.7 in August to 56.2 in September, above consensus estimates (54.0). ISM manufacturing: ‘employment’ sub-component improved in September The ‘new orders’ sub-component eased down slightly, while the ‘production’ sub-index inched up marginally, but both remained […]
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