Eurostat’s preliminary estimate showed that real GDP dropped by 0.2% q-o-q in Q1 (-0.9 % q-o-q annualised), worse than consensus expectations (-0.1% q-o-q) and after a contraction of 0.6% q-o-q in Q4. With this sixth consecutive quarter of decline, the euro area is experiencing its longest-lasting recession since the post-war period. Heterogeneous figures in core […]
Yesterday’s retail sales numbers were surprisingly positive. Nominal retail sales inched up by 0.1% m-o-m in April, well above consensus expectations (-0.3%). The figure for March was revised down from -0.4% to -0.5%, but the one for February was also revised up by 0.1% (from +1.0% to +1.1%). As expected following the sharp m-o-m decline […]
US real GDP grew by 2.5% q-o-q annualised in Q1 2013, below the consensus estimate of +3.0%. This healthy reading must be put into perspective as it represents to a large extent a catch-up following a very low growth rate in Q4 2012, which was negatively impacted by hurricane Sandy. On a year-on-year basis GDP […]
Manufacturing PMI worse than expected For the second month running, the manufacturing PMI showed a decrease. Indeed, the flash euro area manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.5 in April from 46.8 in March, below consensus expectations (46.7). By contrast, the flash euro area services PMI posted a slight rise of 0.2 point to 46.6 in April, […]
As the months ticked by in 2012, economic indicators released in China disappointed, fuelling speculation of a crash landing for the economy. The worst fears were not realised though as activity regained momentum in the final quarter and the downward growth trajectory came to a halt courtesy of classic reflationary recipes for boosting construction spending […]
The flash euro area manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) improved strongly by 1.4 points to 47.5 in January, well above consensus expectations (46.6). Moreover, the flash euro area services PMI picked up from 47.8 in December to 48.3 in January, better than the consensus expectations (48.0). As a result, the flash euro area composite PMI […]
Euro area industrial production decreased in November, for the third month running, and reached its lowest since April 2010. Indeed, industrial production fell by 0.3% m-o-m in November, worse than the 0.2% m-o-m rise expected. The October figure was revised up marginally from -1.4% m-o-m to -1.0% m-o-m. Industrial production plunged for all periphery countries […]
Germany does have the ingredient to recover in 2013. The economy remains competitive, and if an improvement in global demand materialises, German exporters can take advantage of it. In addition, Germany is benefiting from lax monetary conditions which are supporting credit. Therefore, our GDP forecasts for Germany remain above consensus: 1.1 % in 2012 (consensus: […]
The December 2012 issue of Perspectives is now available for downloading. Here are this month’s key figures. Economic numbers released in recent weeks in the US, China and Germany have pointed towards a gently improving situation. If that does prove the case, financial markets are likely gradually to focus more on dynamics in the economy […]
Today’s relatively good outcome in euro area manufacturing PMI numbers tends to confirm recent signs of stabilisation. Nevertheless, the survey’s stabilisation at a low level is in line with an ongoing contraction in economic activity. Accordingly, real GDP is confirmed as recording a deeper contraction in Q4 than in Q3. Hopes of recovery in 2013 […]
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