With the euro area economy likely to remain in recession over the coming few months, and expected to recover only very tentatively thereafter, it is hard to be really optimistic on the Swiss economy for the coming few quarters. Today’s GDP data were encouraging but other indicators including the manufacturing PMI (see chart below) have […]
Our German GDP growth forecast has to be slightly adjusted for today’s data but with 1.0% growth in both 2012 and 2013, it remains above the consensus forecast. The second release of Germany’s Q3 GDP was unchanged from its previous estimate of 0.2% q-o-q growth (0.9% q-o-q annualised), consistent with a y-o-y figure of 0.9%. […]
The new Chinese leaders are likely to focus more on the quality than the pace of economic growth. They might introduce reforms which may include liberalisation of the financial sector, deregulation of the service industries as well as income distribution and social welfare reforms. In the short term, the priority will be to keep the economy […]
Recent economic growth figures for Europe tend to reinforce our worries regarding periphery debt sustainability in 2013 and increases the likelihood of periphery debt restructuring. Latest evidence points towards weaker activity in Q4. This slowdown now seems to be driven by weaker external demand, as our External Demand Indicator seems to show. With periphery economies […]
The National Bureau of Statistics released key economic indicators yesterday, which suggest that growth is stabilising and that economic policy is having some impact. However, we do not expect a strong pick-up in growth as we believe the new yardstick for annual GDP growth in the years ahead is likely to be around the 7.5% […]
On average, July and August industrial production combined grew by 1.0% compared to Q2, higher than the -0.4% q-o-q recorded in Q2. This tends to suggest a rebound in GDP growth in Q3. However, broader indicators, such as the composite PMI, which includes both the manufacturing and the services sector, point toward a deeper contraction […]
The September 2012 issue of Perspectives is now available for reading and downloading. Here are this month’s key figures. Yields on longer-dated German Bunds and US Treasury bonds firmed in response to comments made by ECB President Mario Draghi in his London speech on 26 July. Those yields still look too low compared to levels […]
Macro data stemming from China continue to disappoint but policy easing measures should start to have a positive impact in the coming months. The National Bureau of Statistics released key economic indicators on Friday that confirm the gradual slowdown of the economy. We believe the new yardstick for annual GDP growth in the years ahead is likely […]
Leaks of steam from the German euro area locomotive are likely to trigger additional worries on the future of the monetary union. Furthermore, weak German figures for the second quarter are likely to reinforce the impression that synchronic austerity measures in Europe are killing growth. This will certainly result in widening sovereign spreads within the […]
We continue to believe the ongoing relatively healthy cyclical uptrend in the United States will continue over the coming six months, whilst underlying fundamentals will improve further. More specifically, we are quite optimist regarding the ongoing improvement in the housing sector. Friday’s figures show that real GDP grew by 2.2% q-o-q annualised in Q1 2012, […]
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