Real GDP growth came in at 9.5% in the second quarter, slightly down from the first quarter figure of 9.7%, China’s economy is doing well, despite worries over potential excessive tightening. We believe that the tightening process is over and we expect a smooth economic slowdown during the second semester. For the whole year, the […]
As expected, at its quarterly monetary policy meeting, the SNB kept its target three-month LIBOR rate on hold at 0.25%. As the chart below shows, the official rate has been at this level since March 2009. The Central Bank seemed less upbeat on growth prospects, but remains worried by the “danger of overheating in the […]
May trade figures came as a surprise to the market since it shows domestic demand is not declining, contrary to the consensus’ belief of a hard landing as a consequence of tightening measures introduced to tame inflation. Imports grew much stronger than market expectations, suggesting a firm demand. Inflation grew a bit but is heading […]
The second release of euro area Q1 GDP was unchanged from its preliminary estimate of 0.8% q-o-q (3.4% q-o-q annualised), consistent with a 2.5% y-o-y growth. The most recent past has not been revised (0.3% q-o-q in Q4 and 0.4% in Q3), so the sharp rebound in Q1 is confirmed. The most vivid growth was […]
Swiss GDP grew by a meagre 0.3% q-o-q in Q1 2011 (+1.0% annualised), well below consensus expectations (+0.7%). Moreover, the Q4 growth rate – while still strong – was revised down from +0.9% to +0.8% (+3.0% annualised). As a result, y-o-y GDP growth edged down from 3.1% in Q4 10 to 2.4% in Q1 11. […]
The second estimate of Q1 GDP data was accompanied by a set of economywide statistics on corporate profits from a National Accounts (NIPA) perspective. Corporate profits rose by $21.9bn q-o-q in Q1 11 (+5.3% annualised), following +$38.2bn in Q2 (+9.7%). Due to the disappearance of a very favourable base effect (profits rose by a huge […]
After rebounding sharply between September 2010 and February 2011, the ISM manufacturing index stabilised at a high level in March and declined modestly in April. The global index eased from 61.2 points in March to 60.4 in April, but was above consensus expectations of 59.5. The output sub-index, which skyrocketed to 69.0 in March, fell […]
The US trade deficit narrowed marginally in February to $45.8bn. The small drop was mostly linked to the oil balance Between Q4 and January-February, real exports grew more modestly than expected, whilst real imports bounced back very strongly As a result, we are revising our forecast for Q1 GDP growth from 3¼% to 2¾% The […]
Today we summarize the long-term trends of China’s economy and the transformations at work. These highlights are more structural than cyclical, and portray the pattern of Chinese growth, its sustainability and the challenges for the coming years. The size of the Chinese economy put into perspective China may be the world’s second largest economy, but […]
NIPA corporate profits rose by 9.7% q-o-q annualised in Q4 10, slightly higher than in Q3 (+6.6%) Profits from financial corporations bounced back further sharply q-o-q but non-financial profits actually declined modestly The third estimate of Q3 GDP data was accompanied by a set of economy wide statistics on corporate profits in a National Accounts […]
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