Yesterday’s retail sales numbers were surprisingly positive. Nominal retail sales inched up by 0.1% m-o-m in April, well above consensus expectations (-0.3%). The figure for March was revised down from -0.4% to -0.5%, but the one for February was also revised up by 0.1% (from +1.0% to +1.1%). As expected following the sharp m-o-m decline […]
Thursday’s European monetary announcement only true surprise in terms of monetary policy was that the Governing Council appears to be seriously considering a negative deposit rate. However, as it is a two-edged tool, its impact on bank loans would be uncertain. No clear guidance to unlock the credit crunch A decision to buy asset-backed securities […]
Yesterday’s numbers were above expectations. Following some Sandy-influenced deterioration in October, retail sales bounced back significantly in November and the movement seems to have continued in December, despite worries about the ‘fiscal cliff’. Falling gasoline prices probably offered quite some support. Overall, yesterday’s figures suggest that consumption will grow at a rate of around 2¼% […]
Euro area industrial production decreased in November, for the third month running, and reached its lowest since April 2010. Indeed, industrial production fell by 0.3% m-o-m in November, worse than the 0.2% m-o-m rise expected. The October figure was revised up marginally from -1.4% m-o-m to -1.0% m-o-m. Industrial production plunged for all periphery countries […]
Today’s relatively good outcome in euro area manufacturing PMI numbers tends to confirm recent signs of stabilisation. Nevertheless, the survey’s stabilisation at a low level is in line with an ongoing contraction in economic activity. Accordingly, real GDP is confirmed as recording a deeper contraction in Q4 than in Q3. Hopes of recovery in 2013 […]
The new Chinese leaders are likely to focus more on the quality than the pace of economic growth. They might introduce reforms which may include liberalisation of the financial sector, deregulation of the service industries as well as income distribution and social welfare reforms. In the short term, the priority will be to keep the economy […]
Recent economic growth figures for Europe tend to reinforce our worries regarding periphery debt sustainability in 2013 and increases the likelihood of periphery debt restructuring. Latest evidence points towards weaker activity in Q4. This slowdown now seems to be driven by weaker external demand, as our External Demand Indicator seems to show. With periphery economies […]
The National Bureau of Statistics released key economic indicators yesterday, which suggest that growth is stabilising and that economic policy is having some impact. However, we do not expect a strong pick-up in growth as we believe the new yardstick for annual GDP growth in the years ahead is likely to be around the 7.5% […]
The recent widespread deterioration in the US data flow has certainly been somewhat discouraging. However, supported by improving fundamentals in sectors such as credit, housing and small firms, the recent sharp fall in oil prices and – hopefully – more market-supportive developments in the euro area, we continue to expect some modest reacceleration in the […]
Friday’s economic news from Germany confirm that the only remaining European engine of growth is running out of steam: June’s Ifo Business Climate Survey fell to 105.3 from 106.9 in May. This is the second decline in a row. The deterioration is essentially due to a fall in expectations (see chart below) as its component […]
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