We continue to believe the ongoing relatively healthy cyclical uptrend in the United States will continue over the coming six months, whilst underlying fundamentals will improve further. More specifically, we are quite optimist regarding the ongoing improvement in the housing sector. Friday’s figures show that real GDP grew by 2.2% q-o-q annualised in Q1 2012, […]
The eurozone debt crisis took a fresh, but positive turn on 21 February: eurozone Finance Ministers and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed a second bailout deal totalling 130 billion euros to run to the end of 2014. Find more analysis and views in this month’s Perspectives, available for downloading. Haphazard default avoided in Greece […]
In accordance with bleak prospects, we are revising down our already cautious GDP forecast. Instead of 0.2% q-o-q growth in Q3 and Q4, we predict growth close to zero in the second half of the year. As a result, the 2011 growth forecast is revised down from 1.7% to 1.5%. As a consequence of a […]
Retail Sales: Solid increase in July and upward revisions for May and June Retail sales rose by a healthy 0.5% in July, and data for May and June were revised up Core retail sales rose by 0.3% m-o-m and June’s figure was revised sharply up, from +0.1% to +0.4% This report confirms the idea that […]
Real GDP growth came in at 9.5% in the second quarter, slightly down from the first quarter figure of 9.7%, China’s economy is doing well, despite worries over potential excessive tightening. We believe that the tightening process is over and we expect a smooth economic slowdown during the second semester. For the whole year, the […]
China’s Premier Wen Jiabao declared in the FT today that “overall price level is within a controllable range and is expected to drop steadily”. This declaration confirms our core scenario of headline inflation declining in the second semester from roughly 6% in June towards 4.3% by the end of the year. We believe that this […]
The second release of euro area Q1 GDP was unchanged from its preliminary estimate of 0.8% q-o-q (3.4% q-o-q annualised), consistent with a 2.5% y-o-y growth. The most recent past has not been revised (0.3% q-o-q in Q4 and 0.4% in Q3), so the sharp rebound in Q1 is confirmed. The most vivid growth was […]
For almost one year, the Chinese equity market has been struggling with a dreadful combination: persistent inflationary pressures and the risk of a serious economic slowdown resulting from the PBoC monetary policy tightening. However, the Chinese economic growth is the strongest in the world, with a rate of more than 9%. The future of China […]
The US trade deficit (trade of goods and services) widened substantially to $48.2bn in March from 45.4bn in February (revised from 45.8bn), and was above consensus expectations ($47.0bn). The increase was exclusively linked to a sharp bounce in the value of petroleum-product imports. Excluding petroleum products, the trade deficit was actually down m-o-m: $16.9bn in […]
After rebounding sharply between September 2010 and February 2011, the ISM manufacturing index stabilised at a high level in March and declined modestly in April. The global index eased from 61.2 points in March to 60.4 in April, but was above consensus expectations of 59.5. The output sub-index, which skyrocketed to 69.0 in March, fell […]
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