The US trade deficit narrowed marginally in February to $45.8bn. The small drop was mostly linked to the oil balance Between Q4 and January-February, real exports grew more modestly than expected, whilst real imports bounced back very strongly As a result, we are revising our forecast for Q1 GDP growth from 3¼% to 2¾% The […]
Today we summarize the long-term trends of China’s economy and the transformations at work. These highlights are more structural than cyclical, and portray the pattern of Chinese growth, its sustainability and the challenges for the coming years. The size of the Chinese economy put into perspective China may be the world’s second largest economy, but […]
NIPA corporate profits rose by 9.7% q-o-q annualised in Q4 10, slightly higher than in Q3 (+6.6%) Profits from financial corporations bounced back further sharply q-o-q but non-financial profits actually declined modestly The third estimate of Q3 GDP data was accompanied by a set of economy wide statistics on corporate profits in a National Accounts […]
Total industrial production dropped by 0.1% m-o-m in February, due to a fall in the most volatile component (utilities) However, manufacturing production was up 0.4% and January’s number was revised sharply up As a result, growth in manufacturing output bounced back sharply over the past few months, consistent with what was suggested by recent ISM […]
As expected, the SNB kept its target rate on hold and was more upbeat on the prospects for growth We still do not expect any rate hike before Q4 2011 at the earliest The SNB was surprisingly silent about problems posed by the surging Swiss franc Although anything looks possible in the short-run, we continue […]
The US trade deficit widened sharply in January to $46.3bn. Higher oil prices accounted for only a small part of the deficit increase Over the past couple of months, both real exports and real imports grew very strongly This strength in both foreign and domestic demand indicates robust economic growth The US trade deficit (trade […]
Here are the key highlights from the employment statistics: Payrolls rose by a healthy 192,000 in February, in line with consensus estimates. Moreover, the net revision for the previous 2 months was +58K Encouragingly, the unemployment rate fell further from 9.0% in January to 8.9% in February Other data were softer. Aggregate weekly payrolls (a […]
Trichet announces that a 25 basis point rate hike is likely as early as April The ECB is set to risk starting the tightening cycle too early Weakest Member States likely to be weakened by the decision At the same time, nonstandard measures are maintained at least until the end of Q2 Accordingly, we have […]
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