Here are this month’s headline news from around the world. Find more analysis and views in this month’s Perspectives, available for online reading and downloading. Inflation slowing in Brazil and China Inflation rates have been coming down in several emerging nations, allowing monetary and political authorities to implement further measures geared towards supporting economic growth. […]
Here are the key figures for March 2012, taken from the latest edition of Perspectives. Find more analysis and views in this month’s edition, available for downloading. Economic indicators signalling green Economic indicators have continued to deliver positive surprises in both Europe and the US. Growth may well turn more sustained on both sides of […]
Each month “Perspectives” spotlights the most important economic indicators, presented to you in a synthetized and accessible form. Today we publish the GDP growth rate and inflation (CPI). Data in charts and tables dated as of 1st February 2012. Find these figures and more in the February 2012 edition of Perspectives. Remember you can subscribe […]
Core CPI rose by 0.145% m-o-m, in line with consensus estimates. Over the past three months, the core CPI has increased by 1.8% annualised, a lower reading than over the preceding three months of 2.1% (see chart hereunder). US Core CPI: % Change Year-on-year core inflation stabilised at 2.2% in December (before rounding, it actually […]
We continue to believe year-on-year core inflation will peak in December or January at a slightly higher rate than in November, stabilise in Q1 2012 and then decline progressively, reaching some 1.5% by end-2012. Today’s US inflation statistics show that year-on-year core inflation inched up further to 2.2% in November. After falling to 0.6% in […]
The September manufacturing PMI in China rose to 51.2 from 50.9 in August and 50.7 in July, above market expectations (51.1). This reading was positively distorted with September being the eve of the national holidays. Therefore, the data can hardly be taken to suggest that the Chinese economy is accelerating. However, even if we do […]
Despite the current very uncertain environment, the ECB’s Governing Council decided yesterday afternoon to raise its interest rates by 25bp. As a result the corridor between the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility remained unchanged at 150bp. The pre-crisis corridor was 200bp. Yesterday’s decision was taken unanimously and was probably dictated to a large […]
China’s Premier Wen Jiabao declared in the FT today that “overall price level is within a controllable range and is expected to drop steadily”. This declaration confirms our core scenario of headline inflation declining in the second semester from roughly 6% in June towards 4.3% by the end of the year. We believe that this […]
As expected, at its quarterly monetary policy meeting, the SNB kept its target three-month LIBOR rate on hold at 0.25%. As the chart below shows, the official rate has been at this level since March 2009. The Central Bank seemed less upbeat on growth prospects, but remains worried by the “danger of overheating in the […]
May trade figures came as a surprise to the market since it shows domestic demand is not declining, contrary to the consensus’ belief of a hard landing as a consequence of tightening measures introduced to tame inflation. Imports grew much stronger than market expectations, suggesting a firm demand. Inflation grew a bit but is heading […]
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