Posts Tagged ‘Investment review’

Weekly View – Brothers in arms

Having purged 21 moderate Tory members of parliament (MPs) who opposed him on Brexit, Boris Johnson has had to face the resignation of two high-profile members of his government, Amber Rudd and his own brother, Jo Johnson. British politics will provide more excitement this week, as a law is passed in parliament to prevent a […]

Weekly View – Boris plays hardball

Last week’s ousting of Matteo Salvini’s Lega from the Italian government and its replacement by the centre-left Democratic party holds out the prospect of much less-heated budgetary discussions between Rome and Brussels this autumn and lessens the risk that Italy’s sovereign rating will be cut by Moody’s this week. Helped also by the prospect of […]

Weekly View – Tariff train takes off

Last week was so full of market-moving news that ordinarily major events took the backseat. Critically, trade tensions escalated rapidly from Friday, with China announcing tariff retaliations of the order of between 5% and 10% on USD 75bn of US imports from September. Trump took to Twitter in turn, raising both current and planned tariffs […]

Weekly View – Dot-com bond?

The knock-on effects of Trump’s tweets have jumped from the equity and bond markets to the economy to central banks and now currency markets. Indeed, the trade war turned tech war now increasingly resembles a currency war and a race to the bottom. The Chinese currency depreciated below CNY 7/USD after the Chinese authorities seemingly […]

Weekly View – Powell throws in the towel

After a brief lull, Trump renewed escalating trade tensions with China by threatening new tariffs on USD 300bn of Chinese imports to the US. A global sell-off ensued and the Chinese authorities now appear less inclined to resist renminbi weakness relative to the dollar, having allowed the renminbi to break the CNY7/USD “psychological threshold”. Unsurprisingly, […]

Weekly View – TIMEOUT

The headline event at last week’s G20 summit in Osaka was the bilateral meeting between the Chinese and US presidents to discuss trade. After their last meeting ended in a stalemate, the world waited to see who would be first to blink. The rather anticlimactic outcome was that both sides have agreed not to add […]

Weekly View – MAY DAY, MAY DAY

As the results of European Parliament elections roll in, some unexpected outcomes are taking shape. While populists across the Union did win new seats, they did not fare as well as expected, while Green parties gained significant ground as voter turnout rose for the first time in four decades. Surprises at the country level could […]

Weekly View – Modi makes it

We are in the midst of a decisive elections season, from the surprise, poll-defying victory of the conservative coalition in Australia and Indian general elections last weekend to the European parliament elections in the week ahead. Exit polls suggest Indian prime minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata party are likely to return to power […]

Weekly View – Game of chicken

As a US-China trade negotiation impasse became evident last week, markets corrected a bit, particularly cyclical sectors. Given the strong US economy, Trump is feeling empowered to pursue his agenda, raising existing tariffs from 10-25% on USD 200bn worth of goods with immediate effect and threatening more. Now we will wait to see how China […]

Weekly View – The final countdown

Last week markets were relatively muted, with commodities down, developed markets flat and emerging markets up slightly. That brief period of calm has already ended, with Trump’s Sunday tweets sending Chinese markets sharply down on Monday. With the Chinese scheduled to attend the next round of trade negotiations in the US on Wednesday, the US […]

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