Last week’s continued equities sell-off was driven by disappointment with the earnings reporting season. Having propped up market returns for much of this year, tech’s poor performance was particularly noteworthy. Last week, below-expectation metrics from Amazon and Alphabet (Google’s parent company) flattened the S&P 500’s returns for 2018, while European equities have been much more […]
Italian bond prices regained some ground after Moody’s cut Italy’s credit rating by one notch on Friday, keeping it within investment grade, while upgrading its outlook from negative to stable. Investors welcomed this as positive news while they anticipate Italy’s response to Brussels’ criticism of its proposed 2019 budget due later today. This could prove […]
US equities declined roughly 7% over six days up to last Thursday. While the decline is in line with the median drawdown level since 2007, it was notable for its length, given the average drawdowns over the same time period lasted 40 days, rather than six. Most likely, investors were reacting to the higher risk […]
Far-right presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro claimed victory in the first round of Brazil’s elections on Sunday, albeit he did not obtain the over 50% of the vote required to secure a majority and avoid a run-off. Markets have grown more positive toward Bolsonaro since the start of his campaign and we think Paulo Guedes is […]
The Italian government’s budget deficit target is 2.4% for each of the next three years. It could have been worse: at one stage, the populist coalition’s spending plans looked like raising the deficit to 6%. But its actions set the stage for a clash with Brussels, while Italy’s credit rating could be downgraded in the […]
Today’s kicking in of US tariffs on an extra USD200bn of Chinese imports, and China’s retaliation, marks a notable escalation in the trade war between the two countries. But markets prefer to look at the robust US economy, with strong M&A activity also helping (of which Comcast’s winning bid for Sky is just the […]
September 15 marked the 10th anniversary of Lehman Brothers’ filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Since Lehman’s collapse has come to symbolise a massive financial crisis whose consequences continue to be felt, it is natural for this anniversary to be the occasion for speculation on when and where the next large-scale crisis might occur. Emerging […]
Politics and related events around the world continued to dominate headlines, distracting markets. In the US, clarity around the next tranche of tariffs on USD 200bn worth of Chinese imports failed to materialise as the Trump administration became preoccupied by a White House insider’s New York Times op-ed, which coincided with the imminent release of […]
Last week, the US concluded a trade ‘deal’ with Mexico, although the extent of changes is limited, mostly targeting the car industry. While this is a step in the right direction, the picture is not clear-cut and could ultimately be a story of several deals. Meanwhile, this week we expect Trump’s confirmation regarding the potential […]
Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole summit of central bankers on Friday helped support emerging markets (EM) after a nervous few weeks, especially in Turkey. While the Fed chairman reiterated plans for the gradual normalisation of monetary policy, he also said that the economy is not at risk of overheating, meaning the Fed is […]
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