The Italian government’s budget deficit target is 2.4% for each of the next three years. It could have been worse: at one stage, the populist coalition’s spending plans looked like raising the deficit to 6%. But its actions set the stage for a clash with Brussels, while Italy’s credit rating could be downgraded in the […]
Today’s kicking in of US tariffs on an extra USD200bn of Chinese imports, and China’s retaliation, marks a notable escalation in the trade war between the two countries. But markets prefer to look at the robust US economy, with strong M&A activity also helping (of which Comcast’s winning bid for Sky is just the […]
September 15 marked the 10th anniversary of Lehman Brothers’ filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Since Lehman’s collapse has come to symbolise a massive financial crisis whose consequences continue to be felt, it is natural for this anniversary to be the occasion for speculation on when and where the next large-scale crisis might occur. Emerging […]
Politics and related events around the world continued to dominate headlines, distracting markets. In the US, clarity around the next tranche of tariffs on USD 200bn worth of Chinese imports failed to materialise as the Trump administration became preoccupied by a White House insider’s New York Times op-ed, which coincided with the imminent release of […]
Last week, the US concluded a trade ‘deal’ with Mexico, although the extent of changes is limited, mostly targeting the car industry. While this is a step in the right direction, the picture is not clear-cut and could ultimately be a story of several deals. Meanwhile, this week we expect Trump’s confirmation regarding the potential […]
Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole summit of central bankers on Friday helped support emerging markets (EM) after a nervous few weeks, especially in Turkey. While the Fed chairman reiterated plans for the gradual normalisation of monetary policy, he also said that the economy is not at risk of overheating, meaning the Fed is […]
Last week market volatility was driven by news headlines, rather than fundamentals. This was particularly evident in emerging markets (EM), which continued to underperform despite the stabilisation of the Turkish lira. Chinese internet company Tencent piqued investor nervousness after reporting disappointing Q2 results, against a broader backdrop of concern around slowing Chinese economic growth and […]
Last week, markets were troubled by the dramatic decline of the Turkish lira and the potential for the spread of contagion elsewhere in markets. The lira fell by 12% on Friday and 35% since the start of 2018 against the dollar. Emerging Market (EM) equities fell but overall losses for the week were limited. Elsewhere, […]
Apple made headlines for being the first company to reach a market capitalisation of USD 1 trillion. This milestone highlights two key points about the technology sector, in particular the FAANGs (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) which dominate it. Apple and Amazon’s continued success stems from their highly diversified business, which makes them less dependent […]
Last week brought some unexpected news in trade relations, with President Trump putting the threat of tariffs on EU car imports on hold and promising to re-examine those recently imposed on European steel and aluminium imports. At first look, it seems like wise heads are beginning to prevail in Washington. And with US companies becoming […]
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