After recent criticism of the Fed from Donald Trump’s top economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, last week the US president himself said that he was “not happy” about the Fed’s rate-hiking campaign. Traditionally, US presidents have refrained from commenting on Fed decisions as a way of affirming the central bank’s independence, but these apparently casual remarks […]
A new list of US tariffs was unveiled last week. These tariffs, which could be implemented in September, will undoubtedly trigger countermeasures by the Chinese. But markets chose to look past these tensions to a US economy that still appears robust. Consumer and corporate confidence remain high and Q2 GDP growth is likely to be […]
Last week saw some welcome stabilisation in markets, even though the first wave of US tariffs against Chinese products kicked in on Friday, followed immediately by Chinese counter-measures for an equivalent amount. Instead, investors remained focused on the dollar. The recent strength of the greenback has contributed much to emerging markets’ (EM) weakness. But the […]
After the release of tepid consumer spending and business equipment figures for May, this week will be important in helping us gauge the prospects of the US economy, with the latest Fed minutes released on Thursday and US payroll figures a day later. The minutes should reflect our belief that the economy is in good […]
The week gone by saw some good news in Europe in the form of a debt relief agreement for Greece that ends eight years of bailouts and gives that country some measure of spending flexibility. The agreement sparked an encouraging rally in Greek equities and bonds. The latest flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) figures also […]
Last week was eventful, with Italian bond spreads rising sharply on the threat of fresh elections and then partially recovering when a government was eventually formed. We do not think that the crisis engulfing Italy has ended. After the summer, the new populist government’s unfunded fiscal plans could put Italian bond yields under renewed pressure. […]
The first quarter was an exceptional one for risk assets—so exceptional that it is difficult to see how their performance can be repeated in the present quarter without some strong catalysts. According to our analysis, annualised returns on equities in the first quarter were up to three times higher than their historic average in the […]
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