Mario Draghi has now done (nearly) all that it takes to support the euro area economy. With only weeks left in his term as ECB president, Draghi deployed almost all that remains in the central bank’s toolkit. Following last Thursday’s meeting, he confirmed not only the expected interest rate cut, but also the relaunch of […]
Having purged 21 moderate Tory members of parliament (MPs) who opposed him on Brexit, Boris Johnson has had to face the resignation of two high-profile members of his government, Amber Rudd and his own brother, Jo Johnson. British politics will provide more excitement this week, as a law is passed in parliament to prevent a […]
Last week’s ousting of Matteo Salvini’s Lega from the Italian government and its replacement by the centre-left Democratic party holds out the prospect of much less-heated budgetary discussions between Rome and Brussels this autumn and lessens the risk that Italy’s sovereign rating will be cut by Moody’s this week. Helped also by the prospect of […]
Last week was so full of market-moving news that ordinarily major events took the backseat. Critically, trade tensions escalated rapidly from Friday, with China announcing tariff retaliations of the order of between 5% and 10% on USD 75bn of US imports from September. Trump took to Twitter in turn, raising both current and planned tariffs […]
The knock-on effects of Trump’s tweets have jumped from the equity and bond markets to the economy to central banks and now currency markets. Indeed, the trade war turned tech war now increasingly resembles a currency war and a race to the bottom. The Chinese currency depreciated below CNY 7/USD after the Chinese authorities seemingly […]
There is a new sheriff in London Town and he is not shy with bold statements. So far as prime minister, Boris Johnson has not only pledged to take the UK out of the EU by 31 October – “no ifs or buts” – but has also signalled new tax cuts and spending plans, ranging […]
When the Apollo 11 mission landed on the moon 50 years ago, the 13-minute descent was “rampant with unknowns”, according to Neil Armstrong. Today, central bankers are on their own outer space mission, navigating unchartered monetary policy territory. As they wait for interest rates to land, investors await terra firma in markets. The dovishness that […]
As the results of European Parliament elections roll in, some unexpected outcomes are taking shape. While populists across the Union did win new seats, they did not fare as well as expected, while Green parties gained significant ground as voter turnout rose for the first time in four decades. Surprises at the country level could […]
We are in the midst of a decisive elections season, from the surprise, poll-defying victory of the conservative coalition in Australia and Indian general elections last weekend to the European parliament elections in the week ahead. Exit polls suggest Indian prime minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata party are likely to return to power […]
As a US-China trade negotiation impasse became evident last week, markets corrected a bit, particularly cyclical sectors. Given the strong US economy, Trump is feeling empowered to pursue his agenda, raising existing tariffs from 10-25% on USD 200bn worth of goods with immediate effect and threatening more. Now we will wait to see how China […]
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