Risk assets showed a considerable loss of momentum in the second quarter. Annualised rises of over 50% on the S&P500 for much of the first quarter declined to 5% in the second. The reason was the fading of any belief in the reflation trade that the election of Donald Trump was meant to foster via […]
With the election of Emmanuel Macron as French president, the tide of populism may have been stemmed for the moment in western Europe. Has Europe’s political class found the formula for dealing with the phenomenon? “I wouldn’t bet my investment career on it,” answers Pictet Wealth Management’s (PWM) chief investment manager, Cesar Perez Ruiz, in […]
With President Trump’s plans to ‘reform and repeal’ Obamacare suffering a serious setback in Congress in March, attention is once again turning to the new administration’s plans for tax cuts and fiscal reform. The so-called ‘reflationary trade’, while in large part based on improving economic dynamics, also owes something to expectations that the new US […]
Donald Trump’s presidential win has unleashed animal spirits in the US that are likely to continue to drive equities forward in 2017. So argues Frank Bigler, head of equity investment research at Pictet Wealth Management, in the latest special edition of Perspectives. There are undoubtedly risks, but for the moment, “the overall direction of the market […]
Although Pictet Wealth Management does not expect a significant acceleration in real global economic growth next year, it believes 2017 will see an upturn in price pressures that spark a rise in nominal GDP growth and provides momentum for global reflation. In December’s Perspectives, Pictet Wealth Management’s head asset of asset allocation and macro research, […]
In spite of large doses of policy easing, inflation and global growth remain tepid. With the effectiveness of existing monetary policy styles therefore being increasingly questioned, the November 2016 issue of Perspectives looks at three of the most plausible alternatives. One is asset-price targeting. Could central banks assume responsibility for ensuring the stability of asset […]
Both main candidates in the US presidential election have outlined their plans in numerous areas. Whoever wins, both are promising to raise government spending, especially on infrastructure. Writing in the October issue of Perspectives, Pictet Wealth Management’s chief economist Bernard Lambert outlines various scenarios. Should Hilary Clinton win the presidency but the Democrats fail to […]
In the April issue of Perspectives, Christophe Donay, head of macroeconomic research at Pictet, argues that the Chinese fiscal and monetary authorities still have plentiful resources to ensure that China achieves a growth rate of 6.5-7.0% this year and next. But China will sooner or later face Donay’s version of a ‘financial trilemma’ stemming from […]
The Perspectives special edition 2013 has been published. Download it now. Beyond modern portfolio theory: asset allocation by risk factor John Maynard Keynes wrote in the preface to his seminal work The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, published in 1936, that “the difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from […]
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