If we look back to our core economic scenario outlined in November last year, three of the key developments we had pinpointed already materialised in January this year: firm anchoring of US growth; quantitative easing at the European Central Bank (ECB); resurgence of systemic risk in the eurozone. On the latter score, the constructive talks […]
Economies throughout the industrialised world have been benefiting from the slump in the price of oil. All the liquidity being injected via the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programme is providing a welcome pillar of support for the eurozone. On the downside though, the outcome of Greece’s general election has reignited the risks of a […]
The ISM manufacturing index dropped further m-o-m in January, whilst its non-manufacturing counterpart bounced back slightly. Together they continue to point to healthy economic growth. We remain quite optimistic on the US economy. The ISM manufacturing index fell further in January The ISM manufacturing survey for January 2015 was published on Monday. The headline reading […]
Shares and bonds of companies producing and refining oil have come under the cosh. Spreads on corporate bonds issued by groups in these sectors have been stretching wider, as have spreads on sovereign debt from oil- producing nations like Russia or Brazil. Asset classes reacting in contrasting ways The slump in the price of crude […]
The global economy is becoming increasingly desynchronised. A shift in macroeconomic regime has materialised in the US, with the business and economic cycle taking over as driver from monetary policy. In Europe, pressure is mounting on the European Central Bank (ECB) to unfurl a programme of quantitative easing (QE) at a time when tumbling oil […]
Apart from the technological breakthroughs that helped ‘crack the code’ to unlock the reserves of shale oil, this phenomenon has proved most striking because of not just the unexpected nature of the revolution, but also the shockwaves sent through the world oil industry. Its repercussions will be a combination of both the temporary, on the […]
In contrast with the other leading economies in the developed world, Japan’s economy is enjoying the benefit of liquidity being pumped into it wholesale, which is influencing both the yen and shares in Tokyo. Japan stands out on account of the influential driver affecting how assets are behaving. Disparities in terms of economic growth argue […]
Financial markets in their various guises have all experienced mixed fortunes so far this year. This diversity looks set to persist as well on account of economic and monetary-policy cycles in the main economic blocs being at very different stages. This state of affairs is throwing up several factors of uncertainty which could trigger a […]
Against the backdrop of US and European economic cycles drifting ever further apart, monetary policies being pursued by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve have also been following quite different paths. In a drive to stimulate growth and counter deflationary risks, ECB President Mario Draghi is indeed moving from words to […]
Today’s retail sales report was weaker than expected. Consumption started Q3 on a soft note. However, we remain relatively optimistic and expect consumer spending will grow by some 2 1⁄2% q-o-q annualised in Q3. Nominal retail sales remained unchanged m-o-m in July, below consensus expectations. July’s sales were negatively influenced by a 0.2% m-o-m fall […]
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