The surprise came from Fed rate projections. They were revised significantly up, which contributed to pushing Treasury bond yields up. The FOMC statement and press conference confirmed that the Fed remains upbeat on the economy and that there would have to be a barrage of further economic setbacks before it decided to call a halt […]
Yves Bonzon sees the US market no longer responding to QE moves by the Fed, suggesting that while a correction in equities and Treasuries may come in the summer, the year should still progress positively.
The ISM manufacturing survey published on Tuesday was surprisingly weak. The headline index fell sharply from 56.5 in December to 51.3 in January, well below consensus estimates (56.0), and its lowest reading since May 2013. The deterioration was quite broad-based, with the fall in the ‘new orders’ sub-component particularly striking, as it plunged from a […]
In Q4 2013, US real GDP growth was quite strong for the second quarter in a row. Economic activity expanded by 3.2% q-o-q annualised, in line with consensus expectations. On a year-on-year basis, GDP growth accelerated from 2.0% in Q3 to 2.7% in Q4. Strong pick-up in private final demand growth Details of the report […]
Today’s data on existing US home sales revealed that sales rebounded marginally m-o-m in December. Nevertheless, the fall registered over the past few months was substantial. Sales fell by 7.8% q-o-q (not annualised) in Q4 2013 (see chart below). The sharp increase in mortgage rates witnessed last year and still relatively tight credit conditions are […]
Total industrial production in the US rose by 0.3% m-o-m in December, in line with consensus expectations. The sharp rise recorded in November was revised to a slightly less buoyant reading, but data for September and October were revised up. Manufacturing output growth quite strong in Q4 Following a sharp bounce in November, the production […]
US non-farm payroll employment rose by only 74,000 m-o-m in December 2013, well below consensus expectations (+197,000). However, November’s figure was revised up by 38,000 (from 203,000 to 241,000). As this series on job creation is often very volatile (see chart above), we should not read too much into short-term changes in job creation. This […]
It was becoming increasingly clear that the Fed wanted to make a start soon on scaling back its purchases of assets under QE3 but, in parallel, it wished to convince all and sundry that tapering does not equate to monetary tightening. With these objectives in mind, yesterday’s ‘tapering’ announcement was clearly a success. Modest ‘tapering’ […]
The world’s largest economy is on the verge of embarking on a new phase. Since the sub-prime crisis of 2008, American households have been busy deleveraging. That cycle today is on the cusp of shifting into reverse. Moreover, the Fed is also preparing to negotiate a sea-change in its monetary policy with the forthcoming move […]
Non-farm payroll employment rose by 203,000 m-o-m in November 2013, above consensus expectations (+185,000). October’s figure was revised marginally down (from +204,000 to +200,000), but September’s number slightly up (from +163,000 to +175,000). Net revisions thus cumulated to a small +8,000. As this series on job creation is often very volatile (see chart above), we […]
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