Posts Tagged ‘USA’

United States: uneven ISM indices, but pointing to strong growth in the fourth quarter

The ISM manufacturing survey published on Monday once again delivered a positive surprise. The headline index inched up further from 56.4 in October to 57.3 in November, above consensus estimates (55.1), marking its highest level since April 2011. ISM manufacturing: widespread improvement in November The details of the reports showed that the improvement was quite […]

United States: robust October retail sales, despite the government shutdown

Nominal total retail sales rose by 0.4% m-o-m in October, above consensus expectations of a 0.1% increase. Moreover, September’s figure was revised up from -0.1% to +0.0%. This increase was partly linked to a 1.4% m-o-m rise in nominal car sales. This kind of rebound was somewhat surprising as already published data on unit car […]

United States: Third-quarter retail sales data encouraging for consumption growth

Nominal total retail sales dropped by 0.1% m-o-m in September, below consensus expectations of unchanged sales. The figures for the previous few months were unrevised. This decline was linked in a good part to a 2.4% m-o-m contraction in nominal car sales. This kind of sharp fall was expected as already published data on unit […]

United States: Manufacturing output recovered modestly in the third quarter

Total industrial production rose by a strong 0.6% m-o-m in September, above consensus expectations of a 0.4% increase. The monthly change recorded in August was unrevised (+0.4%). Manufacturing output growth: modest improvement in Q3 This strength was linked to a large extent to a sharp bounce-back in the production of utilities (+4.4% m-o-m), following a […]

Macroeconomics: all eyes riveted on the US

Although self-sustaining economic growth is gradually taking hold in the US, the Federal Reserve decided to bide its time before instigating its move to rein in its buying of assets so as not to endanger the upswing underway. Nonetheless, at the time of writing, the brinkmanship by politicians on Capitol Hill over setting the 2014 budget and raising the Federal […]

United States: ISM surveys are uneven, but still point to strong growth in the third quarter

The ISM manufacturing survey published on Tuesday once again delivered a positive surprise. The headline index inched up further from 55.7 in August to 56.2 in September, above consensus estimates (54.0). ISM manufacturing: ‘employment’ sub-component improved in September The ‘new orders’ sub-component eased down slightly, while the ‘production’ sub-index inched up marginally, but both remained […]

US budget policy: deadline missed, government shutdown has begun

On 1 October, for the first time in almost 18 years, the US federal administration started a partial shutdown. The Congress failed to vote a ‘Continuing Resolution’ that would have extended government spending authority. The previous one was set to expire at the end of fiscal year 2013, i.e. at midnight on Tuesday. Government shutdown: […]

US bond market: heading for the ‘Great Adjustment’

Long-term interest rates can be split into two fundamental components. One relates to market expectations as regards monetary policy (expectations for short-term rates). The other reflects a maturity premium, i.e. a premium for the risk of tying up capital long-term against the more reliable option of rolling over short-term debt instruments or Treasury bills. The level of this premium is influenced by, on the one […]

The cost of the US monetary brake

Back in May, the US Federal Reserve hinted at the likelihood of scaling down or ‘tapering’ its third QE round (QE3). This deliberate sea-change forms part of the general process of normalisation underway in the world’s largest economy. Although the impact of the Fed’s comments on US interest rates hit home fast, the global economy […]

US monetary policy: ‘Tapering’ not on a preset course

Wednesday’s statement by the Federal Open Market Committee and Fed chairman Ben Bernanke’s press conference were more dovish than expected. The main surprise was that the Fed decided not to start winding down asset purchases. Most forecasters, including us, were expecting a small monthly ‘taper’ of $10bn to $15bn. This surprise pushed long-term rates and […]

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