Just as the US begins to emerge from the long balance sheet recession from which it has suffered since 2008, then another express train, this time from the emerging markets, hurtles into the station without warning. Admittedly, emerging market equities have underperformed developed equities since the fourth quarter of 2010. At first, this underperformance raised […]
Total industrial production rose by 0.4% m-o-m in August, slightly below consensus expectations of a strong 0.5% increase. The monthly change recorded in July was unrevised (+0.0%). Manufacturing output growth: some modest improvement so far in Q3 The recent sharp fallbacks in the production of utilities (-6.5% between March and July) was followed by another […]
Non-farm payroll employment rose by 169,000 m-o-m in August 2013, slightly below consensus expectations (+180,000). Moreover, July’s figure was revised down (from +162,000 to +104,000), as was June’s number (from +188,000 to +172,000). Net revisions therefore cumulated to a substantial -74,000. As this series on job creation is often very volatile (see chart above), we should not read too […]
The publication of the ISM manufacturing survey last Tuesday was once again a positive surprise. The composite index inched up further from 55.4 in July to 55.7 in August, well above consensus estimates (54.0). ISM manufacturing: new orders sub-component up sharply The monthly improvement was particularly positive for the ‘new orders’ sub- component, which jumped […]
Nominal personal spending increased by a meagre 0.1% m-o-m in July, below consensus expectations (+0.3%). In real terms, consumer spending was flat m-o-m. However, the 0.1% monthly rise published initially for June was revised up to +0.2%. Consumption seems to have entered Q3 on a weak note. Between Q2 and July, consumer spending grew by […]
On the back of sharp falls back in volatile defence and civilian aircraft orders, total durable goods orders fell by a massive 7.3% m-o-m in July, well below consensus estimates. More importantly for business capital expenditures, core capital goods orders (i.e. excluding defence and aircrafts) were also down sharply in July (-3.3% m-o-m), as were […]
Nominal total retail sales rose by 0.2% m-o-m in July, slightly below consensus expectations (+0.3%). However, the figure for June was revised up from +0.4% to +0.6%. This modest increase in July was negatively influenced by another surprising monthly decline in sales of building materials and garden equipment, and by a fall in nominal auto sales (-1.1% m-o-m, following […]
The mere suggestion that, if certain conditions were met, the central bank could begin to reduce the pace of asset purchases in the fourth quarter led to a disorderly retreat by investors. Those asset classes most sensitive to the dollar, notably gold and emerging-market bonds (see last month’s Editorial), were particularly affected by the shift in expectations about the likely trajectory of […]
Prospects for US household consumption in Q3 remain rather encouraging overall in our view. In addition to strong car sales (see chart below), consumer confidence also improved sharply over the past three months. Nevertheless, the data on retail sales was softer than expected – a good illustration of the fact that the very optimistic growth […]
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