Following the tax hikes US households faced at the beginning of the year (mainly on the back of the expiry of the payroll tax cuts), the strength of consumption in the first quarter was quite surprising. Consumer spending grew by a very strong 3.4% (revised yesterday from 3.2%). Nevertheless, some negative lagged effects were expected, […]
Monthly data published at the end of last week confirmed that the federal budget deficit has fallen very rapidly. Over the first seven months of fiscal year (FY) 2013, i.e. from October 2012 to April 2013, the deficit reached $487.6bn, 32.3% less than over the same period a year before. This sharp improvement was mainly linked to a surge […]
Total industrial production fell by 0.5% m-o-m in April, further than the consensus estimate (-0.2%). Moreover, the rise recorded in March was revised down from +0.4% to +0.3%. Part of this weakness was explained by a widely expected contraction in the production of utilities (-3.7% m-o-m), following a surge in March (+6.4%), amid exceptionally cold […]
Yesterday’s retail sales numbers were surprisingly positive. Nominal retail sales inched up by 0.1% m-o-m in April, well above consensus expectations (-0.3%). The figure for March was revised down from -0.4% to -0.5%, but the one for February was also revised up by 0.1% (from +1.0% to +1.1%). As expected following the sharp m-o-m decline […]
Although today’s set of data will lessen market fears of a marked economic slowdown, we continue to expect growth to slow substantially in Q2 before regaining momentum in H2. Non-farm payroll employment rose by 165,000 m-o-m in April 2013, slightly above consensus expectations (+140,000). Moreover, March’s figure was revised up (from +88,000 to +138,000), as […]
US real GDP grew by 2.5% q-o-q annualised in Q1 2013, below the consensus estimate of +3.0%. This healthy reading must be put into perspective as it represents to a large extent a catch-up following a very low growth rate in Q4 2012, which was negatively impacted by hurricane Sandy. On a year-on-year basis GDP […]
The result is that overall in Q1 housing starts were 7.2% higher than in Q4 2012 (non-annualised) and 103% higher than at their low point in April 2009. Permits were less upbeat, declining by 3.9% m-o-m to 902,000 (i.e. below starts). Housing starts have risen sharply over the past two years but remain fairly low by historical standards. Even after […]
This sharp decline in sales in March was for a good part explained by a m-o-m fall in gasoline prices, which weighed on sales at gasoline stations (-2.2% m-o-m, following +5.4% in February) and a contraction in nominal auto sales (-0.5% m-o-m, following +1.1% in February) – roughly in line with what was suggested by already published unit car […]
The February 2013 issue of Perspectives is now available for downloading. In this month’s strategy section, Pictet’s analysts explain that although some near-term risk factors, such as those stemming from the ‘fiscal cliff’ in the US, have been dispelled, other quite significant ones, such as solvency risk for peripheral eurozone member states, are still blighting […]
Overall, today’s employment report was encouraging, although headline numbers were not better than expected. The pace of job creation has averaged 200k over the past 3 months, a significant improvement. Non-farm payroll employment rose by 157,000 m-o-m in January 2013, marginally below consensus expectations (+165,000). However, December’s figure was revised up (from +155,000 to +196,000), […]
here and you will be redirected to our Group
website, where you will find some of our content.
For more information about our website data protection policy, please click on the following link:
of cookies for the above purposes.