Having purged 21 moderate Tory members of parliament (MPs) who opposed him on Brexit, Boris Johnson has had to face the resignation of two high-profile members of his government, Amber Rudd and his own brother, Jo Johnson. British politics will provide more excitement this week, as a law is passed in parliament to prevent a […]
Last week’s ousting of Matteo Salvini’s Lega from the Italian government and its replacement by the centre-left Democratic party holds out the prospect of much less-heated budgetary discussions between Rome and Brussels this autumn and lessens the risk that Italy’s sovereign rating will be cut by Moody’s this week. Helped also by the prospect of […]
Last week was so full of market-moving news that ordinarily major events took the backseat. Critically, trade tensions escalated rapidly from Friday, with China announcing tariff retaliations of the order of between 5% and 10% on USD 75bn of US imports from September. Trump took to Twitter in turn, raising both current and planned tariffs […]
The knock-on effects of Trump’s tweets have jumped from the equity and bond markets to the economy to central banks and now currency markets. Indeed, the trade war turned tech war now increasingly resembles a currency war and a race to the bottom. The Chinese currency depreciated below CNY 7/USD after the Chinese authorities seemingly […]
After a brief lull, Trump renewed escalating trade tensions with China by threatening new tariffs on USD 300bn of Chinese imports to the US. A global sell-off ensued and the Chinese authorities now appear less inclined to resist renminbi weakness relative to the dollar, having allowed the renminbi to break the CNY7/USD “psychological threshold”. Unsurprisingly, […]
There is a new sheriff in London Town and he is not shy with bold statements. So far as prime minister, Boris Johnson has not only pledged to take the UK out of the EU by 31 October – “no ifs or buts” – but has also signalled new tax cuts and spending plans, ranging […]
When the Apollo 11 mission landed on the moon 50 years ago, the 13-minute descent was “rampant with unknowns”, according to Neil Armstrong. Today, central bankers are on their own outer space mission, navigating unchartered monetary policy territory. As they wait for interest rates to land, investors await terra firma in markets. The dovishness that […]
The headline event at last week’s G20 summit in Osaka was the bilateral meeting between the Chinese and US presidents to discuss trade. After their last meeting ended in a stalemate, the world waited to see who would be first to blink. The rather anticlimactic outcome was that both sides have agreed not to add […]
Last week, Mario Draghi made waves in Sintra at the European Central Bank’s (ECB) annual symposium. The ECB president gave a very dovish speech, vindicating markets’ high expectations and eliciting Trump Twitter censure. Draghi came as close as possible without actually committing, declaring that the central bank stands ready to act by using all instruments […]
As the results of European Parliament elections roll in, some unexpected outcomes are taking shape. While populists across the Union did win new seats, they did not fare as well as expected, while Green parties gained significant ground as voter turnout rose for the first time in four decades. Surprises at the country level could […]
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